Page 26 - BNE_magazine_03_2020 wellness

26 I Cover story bne March 2020
The world's top ten current conflicts
1AFGHANISTAN: More people are being killed as a 6THE UNITED STATES, IRAN, ISRAEL AND
result of fighting in Afghanistan than in any other THE PERSIAN GULF: 2020 has already brought current conflict in the world. Yet there may be a to boiling point tensions between the United window in 2020 to set in motion a peace process States and Iran that rose dangerously in 2019. through a possible agreement between the United A diplomatic breakthrough to de-escalate tensions States and the Taliban. This would only be the first between the Gulf States and Iran or between
step in a long settlement process – but it almost Washington and Tehran seems unlikely, as each certainly offers the only hope of calming today’s side is waiting for the other to make the first deadliest war. concession.
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YEMEN: This conflict has become a critical fault THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA:
line in the Middle East-wide rivalry between Iran Prospects for diplomacy seem to be dimming after on the one hand and the United States and its Pyongyang conducted renewed tests to improve its regional allies on the other. Thus, the opportunity missile technology in late 2019. In 2020, any chance for peace presented by recent talks between the for a deal between the United States and North Saudis and Houthis could evaporate soon, in Korea will depend on whether both steer clear of particular if heightening US-Iranian tensions spill renewed high-level pageantry and high-drama
into Yemen. provocations – and whether they empower their
ETHIOPIA: The country’s transition under Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed remains a source of hope KASHMIR: After falling off the international radar but also carries the risk of violent unraveling. for years, a flare-up between India and Pakistan in As ethnic strife recently has surged, some warn 2019 over the disputed Kashmir region brought the that the country could fracture as Yugoslavia did crisis back into sharp focus. New Delhi seems to
in the 1990s, with disastrous consequences for have no roadmap for what comes next. The gravest
an already troubled region. Broad international danger is the risk that a militant attack sets off an support to avert such an outcome will be crucial escalation, as insurgents in Kashmir are lying low in 2020. but remain active. If a new crisis emerges, foreign
9powers will have to throw their full weight behind BURKINA FASO: The latest country to fall victim to preserving peace on the disputed border.
the instability plaguing the Sahel region, Burkina
Faso is combatting an Islamist militant insurgency, VENEZUELA: Having headed off a civil-military which started in its north but has spread to many uprising in April 2019, President Nicolás Maduro’s other rural areas while struggling with public government weathered a regional boycott and unrest in its capital. Better intelligence sharing a stack of US sanctions.But his government
with neighbours, tighter border controls, and remains isolated and bereft of resources,
policies aimed at winning over villagers are key to while seven million Venezuelans are in need of preventing the turmoil from spreading. humanitarian aid and public services are collapsing.
negotiators to get to work.
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LIBYA: Foreign powers have dramatically stepped UKRAINE: A new Ukrainian president has
up involvement in Libya, which has been an arena brought fresh energy to efforts to end the six-
for outside competition since the overthrow year-old conflict between Kyiv and Russia-backed
of Muammar al-Qaddafi in 2011. Prospects separatists in the country’s eastern Donbas region.
of those powers pressing their Libyan allies Yet if peace seems slightly more plausible now
into negotiations instead appear dim – a more than a year ago, it is far from preordained – recent
destructive stalemate or takeover of Tripoli that plans for a more comprehensive ceasefire and could give rise to prolonged militia fighting appear disengagement might collapse and fighting the more likely result for 2020. could escalate.
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