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interests, including the leverage they can exert against the US by working together geopolitically, and major energy deals. Thus many analysts would be surprised to see them come
to serious blows over Syria. Neither wants to lose face, but the latest fighting could be frozen by a renewed search
for compromise. Of course, an ‘accident’ on the battlefield could change the outlook entirely.
The situation in Syria is one of
a number of negatives weighing on the Turkish lira (TRY), which fell below the psychologically important six-to-the- dollar threshold and has stayed there. By around 15:00 Istanbul time on February 12, the lira stood at 6.0400, 0.49% weaker on the day.
“By any means necessary”
Referring to the 2018 ceasefire
accord, Erdogan said: “If there is the smallest injury to our soldiers on the observation posts or other places, I am declaring from here that we will hit the regime forces everywhere from today, regardless of Idlib’s borders or the lines of the Sochi agreement. We will do this by any means necessary, by air or ground, without hesitating, without allowing for any stalling.”
The threat to use air power may be seen as a very concerning development given that Russia, which has an air base in Syria, has controlled Idlib’s air space for several years. An anxiety must be that Erdogan, under big political pressure
in Turkey given economic failures and civil rights abuses that have encouraged ex-allies to form new political parties
to challenge his rule of 17 years, feels he cannot at all afford to be seen as soft on Syria. Turkey has this month poured
as well as some ground forces. Russian warplanes have carried out numerous air strikes.
TASS news agency quoted the Kremlin as saying Putin and Erdogan agreed
“Turkey on February 11 claimed that 51 Syrian soldiers were killed as rebels hit back against the Russiansupported government forces”
around 5,000 troops, tanks, armoured personnel carriers and radar equipment into Idlib to strengthen its position in the province. Turkey has the second largest armed forces in Nato.
The Idlib fighting has driven nearly 700,000 people from their homes in the past 10 weeks and Turkey, already home to more than three million Syrian war refugees, says it cannot handle another wave of refugees.
‘51 Syrian soldiers killed’
Turkey on February 11 claimed that
51 Syrian soldiers were killed as
rebels hit back against the Russian- supported government forces. Much
of the latest fighting has centred on
the M5 highway, a road linking the former economic hub of Aleppo to the capital Damascus in the south that the Assad regime has not controlled since 2012. Russia has officers on the ground advising the Syrians on the campaign
in a phone call that the sides would continue contacts on Syria. Erdogan said he discussed with Putin the “damage the [Syrian] regime and even Russia inf licted” on Turkish soldiers in Idlib.
“Russian forces and Iran backed militias are constantly attacking the civilian people, carrying out massacres, spilling blood,” he further claimed.
Erdogan, meanwhile, faces claims that many of the militia fighters he has allied with in Idlib are jihadist terrorists.
US envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, was meeting senior Turkish officials in Ankara on February 12. He said the previous day that “our Nato ally Turkey is facing a threat from Assad’s government and Russia”, adding that Washington could offer support.
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