Page 6 - DMEA Week 09 2020

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA
Iran rocked by the coronavirus outbreak; OPEC gathers
OPEC struggles to find agreement while the disease spreads, and its next meeting will be important
IRAN
WHAT:
The virus and the resulting economic fallout have provided a perfect storm.
WHY:
Economic and social activity have ground to a halt in those countries most affected.
WHAT NEXT:
OPEC and its allies will hopefully find agreement on output cuts.
THERE have been more than 86,000 reported cases of the coronavirus (covid-19) worldwide and 2,942 deaths since the disease emerged late last year - the vast majority in China. Most of the world’s focus on the coronavirus has been on the epicentre of China, but latterly and relentlessly other countries have come under the radar as the disease has spread to them. Japan, South Korea and Italy have been foremost in this, as has Iran.
Iran in the firing line
Iran has recorded the second highest number of coronavirus deaths outside China and is struggling to contain the disease. This is raising fears that the outbreak will spread to neighbour- ing countries where fragile health systems and weak government control would make fighting the deadly illness even more difficult. Initial reports indicate that the carrier of the virus may have been a merchant who travelled between Qom and Wuhan, in China, where covid-19 is believed to have originated.
By March 1 Iran’s official health service admitted to 54 deaths from the virus; most of these are from the capital, Tehran, and the city of Qom, where cases of covid-19 first emerged in the country. Qom receives business travellers and Islamic pilgrims from all over the globe and has the highest number of Shia Muslim clerical students in the world. A few hundred of those students are believed to be Chinese nationals.
Can the figures be trusted?
After weeks of denying that any Iranian had been diagnosed with coronavirus, health ministry officials confirmed that two people had tested positive for covid-19 in Qom on Wednesday last week. Later the same day the officials confirmed their deaths. The short time between the confir- mation of the infections and the deaths puzzled many in Iran and fuelled public suspicions that officials had intentionally hidden the presence of the virus for some weeks.
Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi was filmed mopping his brow at a news conference before testing positive for coronavirus disease, and Vice-President for Women’s and Family Affairs Masoumeh Ebtekar announced that she, too, had contracted the coronavirus. There is concern that the virus will spread further
within the government. A day before confirm- ing she had tested positive for the virus, Ebtekar attended a cabinet meeting with President Has- san Rouhani and other cabinet ministers.
The health ministry categorically denies that it has hidden coronavirus cases and insists peo- ple’s health is its top priority. In a stern warning, six Canadian epidemiologists using a mathemat- ical model based on objective factors calculated that Iran probably had more than eighteen thou- sand cases of coronavirus.
Can Iran contain the outbreak?
Iran has a well-developed health sector, and has recent experience of controlling the outbreak of diseases. It eradicated polio in the first decade after the revolution and last year prevented the spread of type-B flu.
But its capacity to contain coronavirus is less certain. Iran is struggling under the eco- nomic impact of US sanctions and Iranians are increasingly concerned that restrictions will lead to shortages of vital medical supplies. Iran has granted top priority to its food and medical sectors, while European pharmaceutical com- panies have waivers from the US to supply Iran with medicines.
Friday prayers in Tehran and 22 other cit- ies were cancelled, and schools and univer- sities closed. Health Minister Saeed Namaki announced that all schools would be closed for at least three days from Saturday as a precaution.
The head of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) emergencies programme, Dr Michael Ryan, said on Thursday that the apparent high mortality rate in Iran indicated its outbreak might be more widespread than realised.
A WHO mission is due to arrive in Iran on Sunday or Monday to help. Dr Ryan said on Fri- day that its departure had been delayed owing to “issues with getting flights and access to Iran”, but that the United Arab Emirates was helping.
President Hassan Rouhani has ruled out placing any cities or areas in quarantine, despite the head of the joint WHO-Chinese mission on Covid-19 saying such measures had helped “changed the course” of the outbreak in China.
Cases traced back to Iran have been reported in Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Canada, Georgia, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan
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