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October 12, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Belarus' new nuclear power plant will change the energy balance in the Baltics
from the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, less than the 100km from populated areas the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommends follow- ing the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in Japan in 2011, raising concerns about the safety of those close to the plant.
At the same time the neighbouring EU members are also concerned the Russian-sponsored energy project will end up being another energy sector foreign policy cudgel that the Kremlin can use to threaten the former Soviet vassal states.
But even putting those concerns aside for a mo- ment the size of the power plant will significantly alter the balance of energy supplies and Lithuania in particular could find its own power sector in a difficult position with most of its domestic utility companies unable to earn a living.
Belarus in the grip of Russian energy
Belarus is a deficit energy producer and almost entirely dependent on Russia for its fuel and en- ergy needs. The total installed capacity of power plants in Belarus is circa 8.4 GW, according to the IAEA, of which the vast majority is gas burning.
With no significant hydrocarbon resources of its own and only a little biogas and hydropower in- stalled capacity, Belarus imports about 82% of its energy from Russia, according to the IAEA.
While Belarus is connected to the Soviet-era “IPS/ UPS” regional power sharing system, it is largely reliant on its own generators for its own power.
The total electricity generation of 29.92bn kWh from its 22 gas fired plants met 90% of domestic
demand in 2007, the last data available from the IAEA, with another 9.406bn kWh imported mostly from Russia and 5.062bn kWh exported.
However, Belarus is a major transit route for Russian energy on its way to Russian customers
in western Europe and Russia plays a big role in the Belarusian economy. Traditionally most of Russia’s gas travels through Ukraine’s Druzhba (Brotherhood) pipeline on its way to the west. Russia has already built a new northern route called Nord Stream and controversially is in
the midst of expanding this pipeline, doubling
its capacity. At the same time a southern route through Turkey, the so-called Turk Stream pipeline, is also under construction. But less well known is the Belarusian transit pipeline; Belarus exports 99% of the gas entering the country and earns handsome transit fees from Russia in return.
In addition, it has two of the most modern oil refineries in the Commonwealth of Independ-
ent States (CIS) that were built shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian companies send significant amounts of crude to these refin- eries and Belarus then re-exports 90% of the pro- duction to customers in the west, again to make
a tidy profit.
The Kremlin uses the price it charges for gas and the duties and fees it charges Minsk in the oil op- erations to bind Minsk to Moscow. The two sides are constantly bickering over these prices, but at the end of the day Moscow heavily subsidises the Belarusian economy by keeping them low com- pared to prices in the rest of the region.
When the Astravets nuclear plant comes online, the amount of gas Belarus needs to burn will be significantly reduced, allowing it to earn a little extra from re-exporting more gas. While this will be a significant saving for the Belarusian budget, the overall volumes of gas transiting the country will not be greatly impacted and so will have little affect on the regional or European markets. The really big affect will be one on the regional power markets.