Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 16

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
Decarbonisation carries $130 trillion price tag
Decarbonising global energy systems has the potential to support the world’s economic recovery from the current coronavirus crisis, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
IRENA finds that $130 trillion is needed to decarbonise the world economy
WHY:
IRENA argues that renewables, energy efficiency and electrification can drive broad socio-economic development
WHAT NEXT:
Decarbonisation will depend on the policies adopted by governments, the speed of their implementation and
the level of resources committed
DECARBONISING the global economy would require $130 trillion of investment in green energy, although this could prove a wise move, as every dollar spent would generate a return of $3-8 of economic growth.
This is the price put on disrupting climate change by The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in its Global Renewables Outlook.
The report warned that energy-related CO2 emissions had risen by an average of 1% per year since 2010 and that reversing this trend would require the support and co-operation of govern- ments and corporations worldwide.
The report reviews what investments and technologies are needed to decarbonise the energy system in line with the Paris Agreement, while also exploring deeper decarbonisation options in a bid to cut CO2 emissions to zero in the second half of the century.
Meeting the Paris Agreement targets by 2050 would require cumulative energy investments of $110 trillion by 2050, but achieving full carbon neutrality would add another $20 trillion.
The report also found that decarbonising global energy systems would support the world’s economic recovery from the current coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis while also meeting climate objectives.
The report warned that while the current health crisis and oil price slump might suppress emissions in 2020, a rebound in emissions would restore the 1% long-term trend, dashing any hopes of meeting the Paris Agreement temper- ature targets.
“Stimulus and recovery packages should accelerate the shift to sustainable, decarbonised economies and resilient inclusive societies,” urged IRENA director-general Francesco La Camera.
“More than ever, public policies and invest- ment decisions must align with the vision of a sustainableandjustfuture,”headded.
Key arguments
A key theme of IRENA’s report is that the tran- sition to renewable energy sources, increasing energy efficiency and widespread electrification can drive broad socio-economic development,
both in the developed and the developing world. In terms of targets, the report puts forward a Transforming Energy Scenario, which runs to 2050, which would enable a 70% cut in CO2 emissions. Over 90% of this reduction would be achieved through renewables and energy effi-
ciency measures.
This scenario outlines the changes needed to
need keep global warming “well below 2C”, in line with the Paris Agreement.
Beyond 2050, the report suggests a Deeper Decarbonisation Perspective, which explores ways to cut emissions beyond 2050 to net-zero and potentially even zero.
This would involve hydrogen and synthetic fuels, direct electrification, advanced biofuels and carbon management, along with innovative business models, structural changes and behav- ioural adaptation.
However, this last step towards zero emis- sions will be the hardest, the report concludes, with emissions concentrated in energy-intensive industries, shipping and aviation. Renewables, “green hydrogen” and renewable-based electri- fication would account for 60% of the reductions in the post-2050 final stretch.
Emissions levels
In emissions terms, the report outlines several scenarios. The Baseline Energy Scenario would see emissions rise by an average of 0.7% per year between 2019 and 2050, from 34bn tonnes to 43bn tonnes. However, this would raise temper- atures by 3°C in the second half of the century. This is the historic scenario that has existed until 2019.
The Planned Energy Scenario, the report’s main reference case, describes the future energy sector if future trends in emissions and renew- able consumption remain the same as in 2020.
It sees emissions increase slightly by 2030 and then decline to 33bn tonnes, roughly today’s level,by2050.Thiswouldraisetemperaturesby 2.5°C.
The Transforming Energy Scenario would see emissions falling by 3.8% per year to 10bn tonnes by 2050, or 70% less than 2019’s level of 34bn tonnes. This would keep the temperature rise to well within 2°C.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 16 22•April•2020