Page 19 - RusRPTJul20

Yet another global problem has become more acute during the crisis. Namely, the quality and reliability of Russia’s economic statistics. Timely, complete and reliable statistics are crucial in periods of crisis. Unfortunately, many indicators and the way they are published are raising concerns. Without reliable statistics, we do not fully understand the current condition of the Russian economy.
Let us look at some examples. The April estimate of the real GDP decline (-12% yoy) by the Ministry of Economic Development came as a surprise since there was a significant difference versus the nominal GDP decline by 27%. The reason lies in the GDP deflator, a coefficient that reflects price fluctuations in the economy. For the first time since 2009, this coefficient turned out to be negative, and not by a bit. It was minus 17%. The nosediving export prices for Russian oil in April saw to that. However, the Ministry of Economic Development did not provide any explanations. So deflator calculations remain in a black box. The GDP decline in April also cannot be seen as fully accurate because the Ministry computes it using at the dynamics of the so-called basic industries (mining, processing, construction, trade, transport). All these account for only 60% of the gross value added.
2.12 ​ ​Aviation hurt by two months of lockdown, but recovering in June
In May, global airline traffic suffered the second month of grounding. Russia traffic dwindled to 946k PAX, with no international and few domestic flights. Turkey saw no scheduled traffic.
However, the trends are reversing in June lockdowns across the region begin to come off. Both countries have lifted lockdowns, promoting domestic flights. Intra-EU borders are opening, while quarantine restrictions are being lifted. At
19​ RUSSIA Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com