Page 37 - RusRPTJul20

would still have Russia's GDP contract by 8% in 2020, with a bounce-back of 6% in 2021. Should there be a serious second wave of the virus, the recession could be as deep as double-digit 10% in 2020 in Russia, with 4.9% recovery in 2021, the OECD believes. The forecast is rather conservative, as the ​Russian government guides for a 5% recession in 2020​, while the usually prudent Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts 4-6%. In the latest June issue of the Global Economic Prospects the World Bank expects economic activity in Russia to contract by 6% in 2020, "reflecting a sharp rise in domestic cases of COVID-19, as well as OPEC+ production cuts and the collapse in oil prices."
International rating agency Fitch has worsened its outlook for Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) decline in 2020 to 5.8% from 5% ​amid coronavirus and lower oil production, the agency said on Monday. Fitch also raised its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.6% from 3% and expects the Russian economy to grow 2% in 2022. The Economic Development Ministry expects Russia’s GDP to fall 5% in 2020 and grow 2.8% in 2021, but the forecast has not been approved by the government yet. The central bank projects Russia’s economy to decrease 4–6% this year and grow 2.8–4.8% next year.
4.0​ Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -4.8
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
37​ RUSSIA Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com