Page 65 - RusRPTJul20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Key parameters: draft federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,363.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
Revenues
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Expenditure
RUB bn
16,713.00
18,293.70
19 ,82.1
20,632.00
21,770.70
Expenditure
% GDP
16.1
16.8
17.3
17.1
16.9
Balance
RUB bn
2741.4
1,881.20
880.8
614.5
287.6
Balance
% GDP
2.6
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
Federal budget: surplus allocation and debt financing
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
The government has introduced new spending initiatives that will moderately increase the government’s outlay this year. ​At the beginning of June, PM Mikhail Mishustin presented to President Vladimir Putin a plan of measures to support the economy in 2020-21, with the total amount coming to RUB5 trillion.
On June 24, Putin proposed several measures that will increase this amount by around RUB0.7 trillion. The lion's share of this will be spent this year – Sberbank estimates not less than RUB4 trillion (or 4% of GDP). However, this does not mean an increase in budget expenditures by the same amount. Part of the support will be extended in non-cash form as guarantees or lighter taxation, while some initially planned spending for this year will end up being reduced.
Sberbank estimates federal budget expenditures in 2020 at RUB21.5 trillion, up from our previous estimate of RUB21.0 trillion, as the new measures
65​ RUSSIA Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com