Page 25 - TURKRptJun20
P. 25
Turk Telekom reported a Q1 net income gain of 113% y/y to Turkish lira (TRY) 661mn (€88mn) (See Section 9.2.7 for details).
Turkey’s largest GSM operator Turkcell posted strong profit growth in Q1 but revised down 2020 targets (See Section 9.2.7 for details).
TAV, Turkey’s largest airport operator, has reported a loss of €56mn for the first quarter of 2020 versus a net profit of €24mn for the same period a year ago (See Section 9.2.3 for details).
Carmaker Tofas posted 7% y/y profit growth in Q1 but revised down 2020 targets (See Section 9.2.2 for details).
4.4 Labour and income
4.4.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
INSIGHT: The coronavirus (COVID-19) health and economic emergency is likely to drive up Q2 unemployment rates by around five percentage points across most of Emerging Europe, but the labour market fallout in Turkey could be far worse, Liam Peach of economic research company Capital Economics said on April 28 in a research note.
Of the assessed economies, Turkey is seen by Peach as likely to suffer the biggest collapse in output during the quarter, at around 18%. That’s given the size of its tourism industry and the importance of sectors that Capital concludes are the most vulnerable to social distancing measures and drops in economic activity, such as retail, transport, accommodation, food and recreation.
Capital has also estimated that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outcome since the keeping of reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to remain below its pre-virus path even by the end of 2022, the company said on April 28 in a separate note entitled “Long-lasting economic damage”.
The scale of the particular social collapse threatening Turkey becomes clear when the masses of people not eligible for unemployment benefit and the millions of employees likely to be de facto laid off to survive on the government’s Turkish lira (TRY) 1,170 ($168) monthly payment for workers on unpaid leave are taken into account. Seyfettin Gursel, the leading professor of economy working on unemployment in Turkey, gave a stark warning in an April
25 TURKEY Country Report June 2020 www.intellinews.com
