Page 28 - IFR Opportunities in Russian capital markets
P. 28
CHAPTER 01
ifrintelligence reports/Opportunities in: Russian Capital Markets
Table 1.9: Brent oil prices – Forecasts and implications
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Oil price, Brent
Exports
Imports
Current account
Current account
Net private sector capital inflows Net payment of government debt Change in reserves
Reserves
Budget surplus Unsterilised reserve build/ money creation*
Reserve money growth M2
CPI
RUB/US$ exchange rate GDP
Real GDP growth
US$ GDP growth
US$/bbl 38 US$bn 183 US$bn 97 US$bn 61 % GDP 10.3 US$bn -8 US$bn 7 US$bn 45 US$bn, eop 125 % GDP 3.4 US$bn 33
%yoy 24 %yoy 36 % eop 11.7 Rb/$ eop 27.8 US$bn 590 % yoy 7.2 %yoy 35
55 65 244 302 125 163
84 96 11.1 9.8 1 42 23 30 61 107 182 303 7.5 7.4 28 65
22 41
39 49 10.9 9.0 28.8 26.4
759 974 6.4 7.0 29 28
40 50
250 275 190 195 10 30 1.0 2.7 30 40 10 10 30 60 335 365 0.5 2.9 35 38
20 25 28 30 6.0 6.5 26.5 26.0 1,050 1,100 6.0 7.0 8 13
59 67 62
305 335 325 200 205 240 55 75 35 4.6 6.1 2.5 50 55 60 10 10 5 95 120 90 400 425 490 4.6 6.1 3.5 51 55 46
30 35 20 35 45 30 7.5 8.0 6.0 25.0 24.0 24.5 1,204 1,230 1,402 7.5 8.0 7.5 22 26 17
Source: CBR, GKS, Bloomberg, UBS
21
