Page 65 - IFR Opportunities in Russian capital markets

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ifrintelligence reports/Opportunities in: Russian Capital Markets
This correlation is partly due to the predominance of oil stocks in the index, but also because of the impact of oil prices on most of Russia's economic indicators. High oil prices increase money supply and liquidity as the CBR attempts to sterilise hard currency flowing into the economy, which can be seen in Russia's trade balance.
The rising price of oil has been the biggest contributor the rising liquidity on the Russian market over the last six years. Revenues earned from the export of oil have risen from US$39bn in 2000 to just under US$160bn a year, estimated for the end of 2006 (see Table 3.19).
Table 3.19: Oil export revenue, 2000–06F (US$)
Exports, m bbl/d
Source: Customs Data, DataStream, Alfa Bank research
Table 3.20: Oil exports, 2000–06F (m bbl/d)
Crude
2000 2.89
2001 3.21
2002 3.73
2003 4.21
2004 4.75
2005 4.96
2006F 5.10
Source: Customs Data, Alfa Bank research
Average urals, US$ /bbl
Total revenue, US$bn
2000 4.1 26.5 39.6
2001 4.6 22.9 38.5
2002 5.1 23.8 44.5
2003 5.7 27.2 56.8
2004 6.4 34.6 80.1
2005 6.8 50.5 124.6
2006F 7.1 61.2 158.6
Total
542.7
Products
1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0
Total
4.1 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.1
Figure 3.9: Russian exports, imports and oil price, 2000-09F (US$)
US$bn
500 400 300 200 100
0
Source: Ministry of economy and trade
Export, US$bn (Lhs)
Import US$bn (Lhs)
Urals price, ave, US$/barr (Rhs)
US$ per barrel
60
40
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 0
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