Page 56 - RusRPTAug21

As the low base effect is expected to be over in June, the growth rates in retail turnover are seen moderating to about 10% in June and to 5-6% in 3Q21 by BCS GM.
In the meantime, the new wave of COVID is the "greatest risk to robust growth in consumer sector," BCS GM analysts warn, noting that in the base-case scenario the volumes of retail sales this year could go up on average by 8.7% y/y (versus a 3.2% decline in 2020).
Under this scenario, the pandemic situation in Russia is expected to steadily improve in 2H21.
"However, the large spike in new COVID-19 cases over the past two weeks shows that such a scenario might well be too optimistic," BCS GM argues, as the Russian authorities are already responding to the worsening healthcare situation be introducing new restrictions in the areas of retail and services.
The retail turnover growth estimate was also improved to 6.9% in 2021
from 5.1%, to 3% in 2022 from 2.9%, and to 2.9% per year in 2023–2024 from 2.8%. Provision of paid services will also rise by 14.3% in 2021, up from 11.3% expected in the April forecast, and by up to 5.2% in 2022 and up to 3.5% in 2023–2024.
56 RUSSIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com