Page 77 - RusRPTAug21

7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q22
Jul21
Aug21
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
72.1
71.5
69.8
76.3
78.9
88.7
91.3
90.6
88.8
87.5
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
64.3
64.7
63.0
69.3
71.7
75.4
76.5
75.5
73.8
73.1
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
72.6
72.0
69.7
73.3
79.5
85.9
90.8
89.6
89.4
86.7
Currency (units per USD) (average)
64.6
64.7
62.9
66.5
73.8
73.6
76.2
74.3
74.2
72.6
source: CBR
At the end of June, the price of Urals oil was up strongly to $74 a barrel, 45% higher than at the end of last year, but the rising oil prices have not lifted the value of the ruble so far.
Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, the ruble was only 2% stronger against the dollar at the end of June and 6% stronger against the euro than at the end of last year.
According to the central bank's forecast, Russia's current account was clearly in surplus in January-May, supported by higher oil prices. However, capital continued to flow out of the country, especially from the corporate sector. The strengthening of the ruble has also been curbed by currency purchases under the budgetary rule, which have been relaunched this year.
The budget rule designed to decouple the ruble’s exchange rate from the oil price has kicked back in with MinFin spending more to buy foreign currencies and intervene in the exchange rate. The ministry spent RUB222bn (about $3bn) in June and is expected to spend RUB296bn (about $4bn) in July in accordance with the rule. In the chart, the LHS is the difference between the price at which the rules takes effect and the current oil price while the RHS is the purchase or sale of currency on the open market:
77 RUSSIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com