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6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports 5.6 3.9 5.9 6 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 cov (months)
Source: ICU
Ukraine state debt declines to 50% of GDP in 2019, MinFin estimates.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt rose 1.9% m/m to $84.4bn in December, the Finance Ministry reported on January 28. State domestic debt rose 3.4% m/m to $35.0bn, while the state foreign debt inched up 1.0% m/m to $39.3bn. State-guaranteed debt underwent no changes, staying at $10.0bn.
In UAHterms, overall state debt inched up 0.4% m/m to UAH1,998bn. State debt concluded the year at about 50% of GDP, dropping from 60.9% of GDP in 2018, MinFin estimated.
State domestic debt in December increased as the volume of newly attracted debt (the equivalent of UAH25.7bn) exceeded the value of local bonds redeemed in December (the equivalent of UAH8.2bn). In addition, a 3.2% appreciation of the national currency in December contributed to the debt growth in $terms. State debt falling to 50% of GDP is a noteworthy achievement, which is the result of prudent fiscal policy amid consistent economic growth. The mid-term government strategy assumes a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 43% in 2022 and 40% at the end of 2024.
During 2019, the state debt actually grew by 6%, from $78bn to $83bn. But Ukraine’s economy grew by about 3.5%. The hryvnia’s 15% appreciation against the dollar, also served to increase the dollar equivalent figure for Ukraine’s hryvnia economy.
Over the past year external debt declined in US dollar terms too: from $50.45bn to $48.94bn, and its share fell from 64.4% to 58%, According to the State Treasury.
33 UKRAINE Country Report February 2020 www.intellinews.com
