Page 4 - MEOG Week 01

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Proxy turmoil in Iraq puts Middle East on edge
Escalating retaliatory moves by the US and Iran have seen relations sour to their lowest ebb in decades with fears growing about all-out war.
IraQ
What:
A series of proxy confrontations between the uS and Iran in Iraq has culminated with
the death of one of the Islamic republic’s leading military commanders.
Why:
both sides refused to follow any road to understanding and compromise.
What next:
Tensions had peaked with high uncertainty about what happens next and its impact on global markets.
A series of dramatic events has unfolded in Iraq which has put the Middle East on edge and brought Iran and the US to a place where angry rhetoric has been replaced by violent actions and uncertainty as to what will happen next.
In the long drawn-out series of Iran-US con- frontations, the latest episode had a trigger point in the death of a US contractor (and others); what happened next went well beyond that.
the spark
The US blamed the Kataeb Hezbollah militia for a rocket barrage on December 27, 2019 that killed a US civilian defence contractor at a mili- tary compound near Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, as well as for at least 11 other attacks on bases that house soldiers in the Combined Joint Task Force – an anti-IS combat unit comprising US and Iraqi troop troops – that have not been claimed by any faction. Officials said as many as 30 rock- ets were fired in the Kirkuk attack.
A spokesman for Kataeb Hezbollah denied that the group was behind the rocket attacks on US bases, including the one that killed the US contractor, saying Washington was using them as a pretext to attack his group. The group’s spokesman said that the death toll resulting from US airstrikes had risen to 25 on Monday and that at least 51 militiamen were wounded, some of whom were in a serious condition. The militia would retaliate, he said, but added that the group’s commanders would decide on the form of retaliation.
“These forces must leave,” he said of US troops in Iraq, calling the latest attack a “crime” and a “massacre.”
The US has maintained 5,000 troops in Iraq at the invitation of the latter’s government, to help assist in the fight against Islamic State.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the strikes send the message that the US will not tol- erate actions by Iran that jeopardise US lives. The US military said “precision defensive strikes” had been conducted against five sites of Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria. The group, which is a separate force from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, oper- ates under the umbrella of the state-sanctioned
militias known collectively as the Popular Mobi- lisation Forces. Many of these are supported by Iran.
“Our battle with America and its mercenaries is now open to all possibilities,” Kataeb Hezbol- lah said in a statement around midnight Sunday. “We have no alternative today other than con- frontation and there is nothing that will prevent us from responding to this crime.”
An official with the Popular Mobilisation Forces said one of the US missiles had struck a room where the fighters were taking a nap in the afternoon, killing some of them in their sleep as the ceiling collapsed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to reporters, said US forces had targeted Kataeb Hezbollah in the past but offered no evidence to support his claims.
In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi condemned the US strikes against Kataeb Hezbollah as an “obvious case of terrorism” and accused Washington of ignor- ing Iraq’s sovereignty. Kataeb Hezbollah is led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one of Iraq’s most powerful men. He is the deputy head of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. In 2009, the State Department linked him to the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, designated a for- eign terrorist organisation by President Donald Trump earlier this year.
turmoil
The attack that killed the US contractor and led to US counter-strikes has come as months of political turmoil roil Iraq. About 500 people have died in anti-government protests, most of them demonstrators killed by Iraqi security forces. The mass uprisings prompted the resignation last month of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who remains in a caretaker capacity.
The anti-government demonstrators, who have been protesting for nearly three months, have “renounced any link” with the crowds that marched on to the US embassy (see below). “What they are saying is that crowd embodies many of the grievances that these [anti-govern- ment] protesters have voiced,” she said, speaking from Baghdad. “They want the government to
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w w w. N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 01 08•January•2019