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5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
China has roared ahead of Russia to account for twice as much of Ukraine’s trade this year, reports the State Statistics Service. For this year through August, China-Ukraine two-way trade totalled $9.4bn. Russia trade totalled $4.8bn. Germany was just behind, with $4.6bn. The next four were: Poland -- $4.5bn; Turkey -- $2.9bn; Belarus -- $2.5bn; and United States -- $2.5bn.
China nearly doubled its imports from Ukraine of sunflower meal during the marketing year that ended in August. China boosted its imports of this protein rich food additive to 1.8mn tons, 43% of all of Ukraine’s exports, reports, Stark Shipping. From Ukraine, the top shippers were: Kernel – 999,000 tons; Bunge – 672,000; Alfa Trading - 275,000; COFCO - 257,000; Garsan – 248,000; and Cargill – 233,000.
China was the fastest growing buyer of Ukraine’s exports, Prime Minister Shmyhal told the Rada on November 5. In October, he said that Ukraine’s exports to China were up by 88%, or by $2.6bn. To attract Chinese investors and shippers, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority has launched a version of its website in Mandarin.
Food exports are down 1.7% through October y/y, to $17.6bn, reports the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business. Trends of major export commodities were: sunflower oil +21%; corn -12%; wheat +6%; soybeans - 48%; canola – 29%; barley + 37%.
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
Ukraine’s current account (C/A) switched to a $817mn surplus in October
from a $195mn deficit in September due to a reduced trade deficit and positive balance of primary account income, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminarily reported on November 30.
The C/A has balanced out in recent months. It was positive to see some growth of goods exports, but we don’t expect this trend to reinforce itself in the nearest months. Low imports of energy products and weak demand for investment goods are keeping goods imports depressed, but the decline will be slowing down amid increasing consumer demand and demand for essential industrial products.
Analysts do not expect dramatic changes in current trends in Ukraine’s external accounts in the upcoming months. The current account is likely to remain balanced out.
37 UKRAINE Country Report December 2020 www.intellinews.com
