Page 23 - IRANRptDec21

Iran’s fertility rate drops off cliff
The announcement of the unemployment benefit comes after significant domestic pressure was put on the Rouhani administration for its handling of the pandemic’s impact on the country. Those classed as sole traders and others with full worker insurance are not eligible for the scheme.
The exact amount of the payment per individual is not known yet, but it is likely to only be awarded to those in the lowest income brackets including factory, retail and delivery workers, to name but a few.
The funding for the unemployment benefit is likely to derive from the country’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF). It has released the equivalent of €1bn in local currency to the government to help it grapple with the coronavirus situation.
Iran’s fertility rate has collapsed to below the replenishment rate, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI). The steep decline in the number of births was a sign of the worsened economic situation of the country, it added. Analysts also see the low birth rate as a reflection of the increased number of women in the past two decades who have pursued education to tertiary level, a longing among many in the population for a higher quality of life and the mass migration of youth abroad. Those who chose to stay behind have often either been priced out of the property and wedding markets or have suffered from the economic effects of the reinstatement of US sanctions that has taken place since 2018.
Iran’s fertility rate at the end of the last Persian calendar year (ended March 20, 2021) was 1.71 children per family, a rate that the SCI said was well below the rate needed to sustain the country of 84mn.
The situation is far worse in regions in the north of the country. Tehran’s rate is 1.3 children per family. Such rates are partly caused by Iranians opting to not get married. Those who do marry typically opt for the unofficial “one child policy”. It is often favoured by those in the middle and working classes due to costs rising exponentially.
Gilan, a region by the Caspian Sea and historically known for high birth rates, now has the worst fertility rate in the country at 1.1 children per family. Nationwide, the SCI data shows 58% of the country has a fertility rate less than the replenishment rate.
Saleh Ghasemi, head of the Centre for Strategic Research on Population at the SCI, said that the low birth rate was one of the biggest issues facing the country. Ghasemi said that the population growth rate (including Afghans and other third nationals) was currently 0.6% and was expected to decline to zero in the next 10-15 years. The biggest collapse in births occurred between 2015-2020, he said, with fewer than 550,000 births per year on average. Women born in the 1980s, in the decade following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, were moving beyond the child-bearing age range as they were now in their forties.
Iran’s ageing population is a growing concern for the new government led by hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi. Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi (no relation) lately observed that the average age in the country by 2019 was 72 years-old, up from 64 years-old in 1990.
23 IRAN Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com