Page 5 - IRANRptDec21

a river and water shortages. Mismanagement by the authorities has been cited as a big factor in water crises seen in many parts of Iran.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has cut its forecast for 2021/22 global wheat production, with a downgraded outlook for the crop in Iran a particular concern. Iran’s wheat imports are set to reach a record level in the Persian calendar year ending next March amid the impact of severe drought on domestic crops.
Meanwhile, trade between Iran and the European Union—still heavily constrained by US sanctions—edged up by 2% y/y to a value of €3.4bn during the first nine months of this year, according to the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (TCCIMA).
Iran’s exports were valued at €554mn (up 14% y/y), while imports from the bloc were recorded at €2.7bn (down 0.6%).
Iran’s annual inflation was posted at 45.2% in the fifth Persian calendar month, highest in 27 years, the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) reported on August 24. SCI reported that the fastest inflation hikes occurred with food and beverages and tobacco, especially given price rises of vegetables, dairy products, eggs and bread.
Iran is also struggling with its fifth and most deadly wave of coronavirus wave. The massive upswing in infections is partly due to the poor rollout of vaccines in the country and large increase in black market sales forcing many to have to go without any protection from the virus. By October 20, daily infections were again running over the 10,000-threshold. The official coronavirus death toll, meanwhile, stands at 124,000, though officials have conceded the real number could be twice as high.
Looking ahead, the Institute of International Finance (IFF) forecast that should the signatories to the original JCPOA manage to agree a comprehensive new nuclear agreement that moves beyond the 2015 terms, Iran would see GDP expand by 4.3% this year and by 5.9% and 5.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
If Tehran and the major powers fail to strike any agreement to revive the JCPOA, unemployment in Iran would likely remain in double digits and there would be subdued economic growth of 1.8% this year, the IIF estimated.
5 IRAN Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com