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The document never explicitly refers
to Russia as a source of threats and maintains Kazakhstan will enhance cooperation with the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, of which Russia is a member, among other international organisations. Still, the intentional obscurity of “global powers” that could threaten Kazakhstan specifically on
its borders, suggests an attempt by Kazakhstan to potentially stay on the lookout for threats originating from only two neighbours – Russia or China; and China has not been particularly menacing towards Kazakhstan as of late, certainly not with Kazakhstan fully engaged in China’s massive One Belt One Road initiative to create modern Silk Road-type trade corridors boasting modern infrastructure.
Invisible wedge grows after Crimea
An invisible wedge has been growing between Russia and its Central Asian neighbour since Russia seized the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 in response to the Euromaidan protests and subsequent revolution that drove out a Moscow-friendly president. Any statements made by Russian officials that appear to place in question the statehood Kazakhstan gained after it was granted independence from the USSR tend to prompt collective gasps. The fact that Kazakhstan has a sizeable ethnic-Russian minority and a near 7,000-kilometer border with Russia does nothing to ease apprehension.
“The people of Kazakhstan do not want
a Ukrainian scenario in the country,” Nazarbayev said early in 2016, promising to punish anyone who might try to enact a Euromaidan-type event in his country.
Another sign of Kazakhstan distancing itself from Russia originates from Naz- arbayev’s decision to introduce a Latin alphabet for the Kazakh language and phase out the Cyrillic alphabet by 2025.
Nazarbayev on October 26 ordered
his office to start preparations for the transition. His previous comments on a possible shift to the Latin alphabet in 2006 and 2012 were largely regarded
as empty words, but were also met with remarks of disapproval from Moscow. Since the Cyrillic alphabet
is also used in Russia, the latest
plans for a switchover have been interpreted as a geopolitical move
that emphasises Kazakh culture and Kazakhstan’s drifting away from Russia. Nazarbayev certainly seems serious about the alphabet switch this time
Developing the military-industrial complex
The development of the country’s military-industrial complex is listed
as one of the priorities of the new doctrine. Indeed, the oil-rich country would benefit from jump-starting its nascent defence industry not only to improve its security but also to diversify its hydrocarbon-driven economy,
“An invisible wedge has been growing between Russia and its Central Asian neighbour”
around. A new Latin alphabet of 26 letters has already been developed.
And Kazakh officials have not stopped short of associating their plans with “strengthening” Kazakhstan's statehood and sovereignty.
Earlier this year, Nazarbayev’s remarks about the new alphabet prompted Rus- sian news headlines such as “Kazakh- stan’s transition to Latin alphabet is a signal for Moscow” and “By transitioning to a Latin alphabet Kazakhstan and Kyr- gyzstan would enter China’s zone”.
Yuri Solozobov, a political analyst at Russia’s National Strategy Institute, has suggested in interviews with Russian media that the decision should alert Moscow since “the commonality of
the cultural space was one of three [pillars], along with energy [and] defence, which linked, by invisible ties, all the CIS countries”. He ambiguously added that the transition is “not a reason for [Russia to] panic, but for reflection and decision-making”.
Despite hints of preventing a “Ukraine 2.0” in the 2017 military doctrine, Kazakhstan is certainly quite lax about maintaining at least one of the three aforementioned pillars – defence.
The Central Asian nation may have lately signed agreements with Russian companies on establishing joint weap- ons systems production enterprises during an international arms exhibi- tion, KADEX-2016. But Kazakh firms also signed similar agreements with China, Germany, Ukraine and Belarus.
which was greatly undermined by the world oil price slump. Some projects to upgrade the country’s armaments and defence capabilities are already in full swing.
Kazakhstan’s navy chiefs in February 2016 discussed possibilities for upgrading ships with anti-ship missile systems with representatives of Zenith Uralsk Shipyard and French military company MBDA. The defence ministry, meanwhile, said at the beginning of March that it was considering new naval mines to protect its Caspian Sea shore. Kazakhstan’s naval defences along the Caspian coast are reportedly sparser than those of Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan launched construction of
its first ammunition plant in March 2016, located in the Sary-Arka special economic zone in Karaganda. The new facility will produce 30mn ammunition rounds per year starting from December 2017, according to defence officials.
It will primarily focus on meeting the Kazakh army’s needs, namely with 5.45x39 mm, 7.62x54 mm, 9x18
mm and 9x19 mm rounds. Canadian company Waterbury Farrel will provide equipment for the production line.
The project’s estimated worth stands
at KZT24.8bn (€63.9mn at the current exchange rate) according to reports from 2015 and 2016. The plant will be run by the defence ministry jointly with state-owned company Kaztekhnologii and a local subcontractor in steel manufacturing in Karaganda Region.
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