Page 31 - RusRPTJune18

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5
GDP (per capita)
13,324 14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,731 /
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
37,208,226 42,205,094 47,163,119 56,336,400 59,116,800 59,822,700 64,637,500
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
13,982,500 15,223,900 15,077,000 16,436,100 16,812,800 18,112,400 19,944,000
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
16,940,900 18,413,100 18,936,600 21,464,200 23,606,500 22,124,300 17,083,600 (Jan-Sep)
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
12,164,400 13,848,100 15,014,100 16,296,400 17,095,200 17,685,800 13,716,100 (Jan-Sep)
Source: Rosstat, CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Russia's industrial output growth inched up to 1.3% year-on-year in April , after 1% y/y growth seen in March, according to the report by the RosStat statistics bureau.
Previously first quarter showed bumpy macro numbers , with industrial output falling behind expectations in March and slowing down from 1.5% y/y seen in February and 2.9% y/y in January.
The slight acceleration in April was due to the better performance in mining and manufacturing , while the industrial output print was held back by weather patterns returning to normal (that triggered electricity production back to 1.1% y/y), VTB Capital commented on May 21.
"We believe that the report provides evidence of a slightly better performance in the production of construction materials, which, in our view, hints at a recovery in construction works value too," VTB argues. April also had a favourable calendar factor, with one working day more than last year.
Manufacturing recovered to 1.1% y/y growth , after three months of a gradual slowdown, and besides construction benefited from electrical items and transport.
In April the Ministry of Economic Development has revised the target industrial output growth for 2018 to 1.7% from previous 2.5%, while stopping short of downgrading the GDP forecast of 2.1%.
March’s contraction in construction proves to be a one-off.
A series of factors that might have made the slowdown in construction works so deep in March. Interestingly, this contraction was also foreshadowed by a sharp decline in the output of construction materials. However, the latest IP report showed an improvement in the output of these items. The value of
31 RUSSIA Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com