Page 39 - RusRPTJune18

5.0 External Sector & Trade 5.1 External sector overview
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
Rising oil prices have put the Russian trade account into comfortable profit of circa $20bn a quarter. There were fears last year the current account would go into the red, but those fears have gone.
Russia -Trade 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Nov 2017
Trade: External balance on goods and services (USD mn)
162,564 148,023 123,679 134,497 111,638 103,425 115,554
Trade: External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)
8.05 6.66 5.39 6.41 8.06 5.16 /
Trade: Goods exports (BoP) (USD mn)
515,409 527,434 523,275 497,763 341,467 285,772 319,712
Trade: Goods imports (BoP)
318,555 335,771 341,337 308,026 193,952 191,671 204,157
Trade: Current account BPM6 (USD mn)
97,274 71,282 34,801 58,432 68,375 25,664 21,466 (Jan-Sep)
Trade: Current account to GDP (%)
5.11 3.54 1.67 3.14 5.22 2.14 /
source: Rosstat, CEIC, World Bank
According to the official preliminary estimate, Russia's current account surplus reached $20.8 bln in the first two months of 2018, up from $12.8bn in January and $14.5bn in 2m17. The trade surplus increased, reaching $29.6bn, supported by higher exports than a year ago. Imports were also higher, but their growth was slower than that of exports.
Capital outflow from the private sector reached $9.8bn in the first two months of 2018, versus the $4.4bn outflow a year ago. The Finance Ministry bought $5.3bn in FX between February 7 and March 6, also contributing to the weaker ruble and slower import growth.
The forecast of the current account balance in 2018 increased from $ 43bn to $59bn, the forecast of foreign exchange reserves - from $ 35bn to $ 50bn.
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
Exports of the Russian grain to China reached a record-breaking level in this agricultural year and is above 1mn tonnes first time, the Russian veterinary and phytosanitary watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor says on May 16. According to the Argus Phyto system, 1.23mn tonnes of grain were supplied to the China market from July 1, 2017 to May 15 of this year. Deliveries were twice lower and amounted to 503,000 tonnes in the previous agricultural year from July 1,
39 RUSSIA Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com