Page 13 - GEOGRptJun19

3.0 Macro Economy
Georgia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Indicators
GDP real growth (y/y, %)
6.4 3.4 4.6 2.9 2.7 5.0 4.8
GDP (per capita, $) 3,523.4 3,599.6 3,676.2 3,766.6 3,864.6 4,078.5 4,415
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (GEL mn)
23,733.2 23,671.8 25,570.7 27,318.7 28,241.5 30,381.7 15,244 (Jan-Jun)
GDP: Gross capital formation, (GEL mn)
7,575.4 6,652.9 8,688.8 10,004.3 10,999.8 12,133.3 6,033.3 (Jan-Jun)
GDP: Exports, (GEL mn)
9,982.9 11,997.9 12,518.3 14,206.8 14,837.8 19,177.3 4,549.7 (Jan-Mar)
GDP: Imports, (GEL mn)
15,124.2 15,475.2 17,627.3 19,774.3 20,187.5 23,650.1 6,022.9 (Jan-Mar)
Source: bne IntelliNews, CEIC
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Georgia’s Q1 GDP up 4.7% y/y according to rapid estimate
IMF completes fourth review under EFF in Georgia, to disburse $41.6mn
Georgia’s GDP expanded by 4.7% y/y in Q1 after strengthening to 6.0% y/y in March alone, preliminary estimates from the country’s statistical office show.
Among the indicators used to provide the rapid GDP estimates, the value added tax (VAT) payers’ turnover in Q1 gradually accelerated from 7.9% y/y in January to 12.6% y/y in March. The government budget, another used indicator, posted a surplus in two of the three months of the quarter and in quarter overall. Separately, exports rose by 12.8% y/y in the quarter.
Georgia’s economy expanded by 5% in 2017. The government also expects 5% this year, as a minimum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects 4.6%, with infrastructure spending expected to compensate for weaker external demand and slower credit growth.
International rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) has announced that it has revised its outlook for Georgia’s sovereign rating upwards from stable to positive. It projects an annual growth rate of around 4% in the medium term. It added that it could raise the country’s rating if its economic performance proved stronger than present expectations (4% GDP growth this year and 3.5% in 2020).
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team on May 13 announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with the authorities of Georgia on completing a fourth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme sealed with the country in 2017.
The IMF executive board is expected to consider the review in June, when an
13 GEORGIA Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com