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26 I Companies & Markets bne October 2021
Global coal plans collapse by 76%
Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh
The global pipeline of proposed coal power plants has collapsed by 76% since the Paris Agreement in 2015, bringing the end of new coal power construction into sight, new research by green think-tank E3G finds.
Around the world, a total of 1,175 GW of planned coal-fired power projects have been cancelled since 2015, while 44 governments – 27 in the OECD and EU, 17 elsewhere – have already committed to no new coal.
A further 40 countries – eight in the OECD and EU, 32 elsewhere – are without any projects in the pre-construction pipeline and are in a position where they could readily commit to “no new coal.”
E3G’s No New Coal Report found that new government policies and sustained civil society opposition to coal has accelerated market trends away from the fuel.
“The collapse of the global coal pipeline and the rise of commitments to ‘no new coal’ are progressing hand in hand. Ahead of COP26, governments can collectively confirm their intention to move from coal to clean energy. The economics of coal have become increasingly uncompetitive in comparison to renewable energy, while the risk of stranded assets has increased. Governments can now act with confidence to commit to ‘no new coal,” said report author Chris Littlecott, associate director at E3G.
Asia
Indeed, any current keenness for coal is confined to Asia, with the study naming China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Bangladesh as accounting for over 80% of the world’s coal pipeline.
The remaining pre-construction pipeline is spread across a further 31 countries, 16 of which have just one project.
With the OECD and EU, 56% of operating capacity has either closed since 2010 or is scheduled to shut by 2030, while the pipeline of proposed coal power plants in these countries has collapsed by 85% since 2015.
In this group, only Australia, Colombia, Mexico, Poland and
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The reduction in size of the global coal project pipeline (left) and year-on-year tracking of projects that were cancelled or newly operational (right).
Turkey still have coal projects, and are under pressure to follow their OECD and EU peers.
Among non-OECD countries (excluding China), the pre- construction pipeline has collapsed by 77% since 2015, with a cancellation ratio of over 5:1.
27 countries have ended the development of new coal power generation through project cancellations and/or policy commitments since 2015.
Southeast Asia (42%), South Asia (32%) and sub-Saharan Africa (13%) collectively account for 87% of the non-OECD pipeline.
This shift away from coal is being reflected in governments’ political commitments, policy frameworks and NDC submissions, for example in Pakistan, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. They are serving as regional pathfinders that other countries can follow.
China
China alone is home to almost 53% of the capacity under construction and 55% of the pre-construction pipeline.
China has, however, seen a 74% reduction in the scale of its project pipeline, with 484 GW of cancellations since Paris in 2016.
President Xi has announced an intention that China will ‘strictly control’ new coal growth as part of long-term plans to achieve net zero by 2060.
However, this has yet to be reflected in sectoral Five-Year Plan (FYP) policies, the E3G report said.
China is also isolated as the last remaining major provider of public finance for overseas coal projects, following Japan and South Korea’s recent commitments to end coal finance.
An end to Chinese finance would facilitate the cancellation of over 40 GW of pipeline projects in 20 countries.
While welcome, the report identified Asian countries as maintaining their support for coal.