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in favour of Babis and his interests, playing for time, making new excuses. It is a huge blow for the rule of law, and the officials responsible for this should be help accountable.”
Nevertheless, up till now Czech voters do not seem to have taken on board that, given the EU is refusing to reimburse
the subsidies the state is giving Agrofert, that money is essentially coming out of their pockets.
The Czech CEO
If all that has been disappointing, the pandemic, while restricting Million Moments’ opportunities to protest, has at least shown that Babis’ pretensions to be a technocratic manager are just hot air, says Roll.
The Czech death rate is the fifth
highest in the world per capita, and the government’s policy has been poorly communicated and inconsistent, with too much attention paid to opinion polls rather than infection figures. As the country’s “CEO”, Babis’ most decisive action has been to fire four health ministers as scapegoats.
“Andrej Babis as a manager failed during the COVID crisis. This was his story:
I am the best manager, I know how to run things in the most efficient way. This was destroyed – or at least I hope so,” says Roll.
However, Babis is still ahead in opinion polls, something that mystifies the protest leader, though he admits
that opposition forces also failed to provide a clear message on whether the restrictions should be tighter or looser.
“It is very difficult for me to understand it,” he says, though he suggests: “People believe [the pandemic] is all behind us. And opposition politicians didn’t use the topic as they could – perhaps even us.”
Roll says that from talking to people across the country during his voter mobilisation campaign he feels that there is not much strong support for Babis
or satisfaction with the government. “They want change but a lot of people are resigned,” he says, a feeling that
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will even deepen if he wins again. Zeman has already said that he will nominate Babis to make the first attempt to form a government, and he could be allowed many months to do so, given the way the president has controversially interpreted the constitution.
The nightmare scenario for the opposition is a coalition between Babis and the far left Communist party and Okamura’s far right SPD and perhaps the new populist Oath party of former policeman Robert Slachta.
According to Roll, this would give the green light for further attacks on civil society and the media, and foster
a climate of intolerance. Though the Czech constitution and institutions have been robust enough to withstand Babis so far, this could push Czechia down the slippery slope to Viktor Orban’s Hungary or at least Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Poland.
Replacing the head of the Czech public television would likely be the first goal, something Million Moments argues that it has helped block up till now. “They can see they can do this and no-one will do anything about this,” Roll says.
Backseat driver
In the case of political deadlock, another scenario is that President Zeman creates his own government, as he did in 2013- 14, though this government would
likely only last until at most the next presidential election in January 2023, at which Zeman cannot stand (though Babis might).
“This would be very hard for our constitutional system,” says Roll, adding: “[So long as] Milos Zeman is president, there is a huge danger for our state and we need to be ready to react.”
The threat of either of these possibilities would also put pressure on the rightwing ODS party and the Christian Democrats to abandon their pledges and form a coalition with ANO as the least worst option. Babis has already hinted that
he could take a back seat, solving his conflict of interest problems at a stroke.
“If something like that was possible after the election, this is another ‘moment’ for Million Moments to protest against,” Roll says. “ANO without Babis is a nonsense.” However, he adds: “I’m afraid that if he will take a [backseat] Kaczynski role, it will be very difficult for us to say ‘ANO
is the [real] problem’.”
Roll argues that any of these scenarios
– an extremist coalition, a Zeman government or an ANO-ODS government – would force Million Moments to lead new huge demonstrations together with opposition parties.
Given how these have been ignored in the past, these protests may even include “more radical ways”, though he declined to spell out what these could be.
Onetime ally Ondracka says such radical protests would only include sit-ins or blockades – “remember this is the Czech Republic we’re talking about” he jokes
– though he questions whether Million Moments is really the best movement to lead them.
“I’m quite sceptical that [Million Moments] could be the ones to run this,” he says. “They are very conciliatory and they are not street fighters.”
As the Hungarian opposition gears up for elections there in the spring, the success or otherwise of this opposition campaign in Czechia could have regional importance. It could build on the success of the Slovak protest movement that forced Prime Minister Robert Fico to resign in March 2018 and helped bring the opposition to power in March 2020, or it could mark another stage in the "democratic backsliding" of Central Europe.
“I hope it will show it is possible to change things,” Roll says. “If [not] it will ‘break’ active citizens in the Czech Republic and perhaps elsewhere.”
“I hope the Czech Republic will be
a good example of how to do it before it’s too late,” he adds. “The lesson is to recognise the threat and mobilise at the right time, when you still have free elections.”