Page 78 - bne_October 2021_20211004

78 I New Europe in Numbers bne October 2021
Contributions to annual change in exports in August 2021
Textiles and footwear sector left out of Albania’s export recovery
Slovak inflation y/y%
Source: Central Bank of Slovakia
Romania: Foreign Trade (€mn)
Albania’s exports increased by 22.5% year on year in August to ALL24bn (€196mn), not only recovering to the pre-pandemic year, but exceeding their value in July 2019, statistics office Instat said. During the month, exports were 18.9% higher than the monthly average for August 2018-2020.
Imports also rebounded, growing by 26.2% y/y to ALL61bn, up 23.2% on the average figure for the previous three Augusts.
Slovak inflation at its highest level since October 2012
Slovakia's inflation level increased to the highest figure seen since October 2012, to 3.8% in August, driven by higher prices in transport, imputed rent affected by construction material prices and further increasing food prices, as stated in the Slovak Statistics Office report from September 14.
“While in the first few months of the year housing and energy prices dampened price growth, in 2H21 they are driving it up. Significant increases in prices of construction materials have already outdone the effect of a drop in energy prices from the beginning of the year,” the office said.
Romania’s trade gap soars by 65% y/y in July
The trade deficit posted by Romania in July was the second-largest ever at €2.2bn and almost two-thirds (65%) wider compared to July 2020 — not exactly the best comparison, given the disruptions in foreign trade last year during the pandemic.
Exports increased by 15% y/y to €6.36bn, but imports advanced even more by 24% y/y to €8.55bn. The growth rates for both export and imports are still pushed up by the low base, but the wide differential is relevant for Romania’s structural foreign trade balance.
Russian inflation expectations remained a very high 12.5% in August
Russian inflation expectations remained very high in August, according to the latest Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) report commissioned by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and released in August.
The median estimate for price over the last 12 months amongst regular Russians polled by FOM was 16.5%, whereas the actual rate of inflation in July was 6.5%. Households' expectation for price rises over the next 12 months is a slightly lower 12.5% in August, down slightly from 13.4% a month earlier, but still more than twice the actual rate of inflation.
The CBR’s official prediction for inflation this year will reach 5.7-6.2%, before falling again next year to 4.0-4.5% in 2022, and then it will remain close to the CBR’s target level of 4% after that.
Russia FOM survey inflation expectations next 12 months %
Source: CBR, FOM
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