Page 37 - UKRRptAug18

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Budget and debt 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F indicators
State budget revenues, 231.7 209.7 240.6 314.6 346 339.2 357 519 616.3 724 UAH bln
% of GDP 24.4% 23.0% 22.3% 24.2% 24.6% 23.2% 22.8% 26.9% 26.2% 26.3%
State budget 244.2 245.2 304.9 338.1 399.4 403.9 435 552 686.4 806 expenditures, UAH bln
% of GDP 25.8% 26.8% 28.3% 26.0% 28.4% 27.6% 27.8% 29.2% 28.9% 29.3%
State budget balance, -12.5 -35.5 -64.3 -23.6 -53.4 -64.7 -78 -33 -70.1 -82 UAH bln
% of GDP -1.3% -3.9% -6.0% -1.8% -3.8% -4.4% -5.0% -1.7% -3.0% -3.0%
Public debt, UAH bln 189 318 432 473 516 584 1,101 1,594 1,930 2,175
% GDP 20.0% 34.8% 40.1% 36.4% 36.7% 39.9% 70.3% 82.7% 82.1% 79.0%
Source: SP Advisors
Ukraine’s general budget deficit switched to a UAH3.3bn deficit in June
after a UAH13.6bn surplus in May, owing to slower growth in budget revenue, the State Treasury reported on July 27.
General budget revenue increased 14.1% y/y to UAH99.3bn, decelerating from a 41% y/y surge in the prior month. Meanwhile, general budget expenditures rose 21.1% y/y to UAH102.7bn in June, slowing from 43% y/y growth in May.
Tax revenue improved 17.1% y/y while non-tax revenue grew 7.7% y/y. Receipts from enterprise profit tax plummeted 46% y/y after a 44% y/y surge in May.
Meanwhile, excise taxes for domestic goods picked up 13% y/y after a 4% y/y decline in the previous month. In addition, rental payments for the use of natural resources surged almost three times y/y. Strong growth in net VAT receipts continued as well, reaching 42% y/y in June.
Receipts from property income and entrepreneurial activities inched up 3.4% y/y in June, dragging down the overall growth of non-tax revenue. For the first half of 2018, general budget revenue increased 14.4% y/y, while the general budget posted a surplus of UAH10.4bn.
June’s general budget deficit should be a warning sign for public finance managers according to analysts. It could be imprudent to maintain a high growth rate of public expenditures amid very uneven flows coming into the budget.
In particular, the problem of large swings in month-to-month receipts from the enterprise profit tax persists and points to the practice of “manual” tax
37 UKRAINE Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com