Page 13 - IRANRptMar19

Iran—like Turkey home to around 81mn people—has seen its reform efforts complicated by the fact that it has come under a sustained sanctions-led economic attack from the US. A big concern for Iran presently is fighting profiteers and speculators seeking to exploit criminal opportunities presented by the market turmoil generated by the Trump administration sanctions regime. Seeking to curb public anger over such crimes, Iran has even set up special courts to deal with such offenders.
3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
IMF sees inflation in Iran breaching 40% by year’s end
On November 13, the IMF predicted that inflation in Iran will leap to more than 40% by the end of 2018. In a report on Middle Eastern economies, the Fund also repeated a previous forecast released in its latest World Economic Outlook on October 8 that the ultra-aggressive US sanctions regime would push Iran's economic output down by 1.5% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019.
"This [recession] largely reflects the expected impact of the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran, which is likely to reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly over the next two years at least," the IMF said.
Iran's economy expanded by 12.5% in 2016 after global sanctions were removed under the Islamic Republic’s 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers (including the US which unilaterally walked out of the accord in early May this year). The country’s GDP expansion was measured at a much less impressive 3.7% last year after Donald Trump came to power and showed immediate hostility to Iran, thereby reversing a lot of previously positive investor sentiment on its economic prospects.
In the new report, the IMF's Middle East director, Jihad Azour, said one of the most urgent issues facing Iran as it deals with the consequences of the Trump administration’s sanctions was the need to align the official currency-exchange rates for the rial with black market rates.
13 IRAN Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com