Page 21 - IRANRptMar19

TankerTrackers sees Iran’s oil exports 60% down from peak under sanctions pressure
Bilateral trade between Turkey and Iran falls 10% y/y to $8.2bn in 10-month period
Iran reports non-oil trade surplus of $2bn for first seven Persian months
Iran’s crude oil exports were 60% down in December compared to the April peak of last year as buyers cut purchases due to US energy sanctions aimed at Tehran, TankerTrackers.com reported on January 15. The volume of crude oil exports still being achieved by Iran is a topic of hot debate among oil watchers, with the Iranian is often accused of massaging its figures.
TankerTrackers, based in Europe, is a new technology company that tracks individual tankers via satellite technology from loading to destination. According to its statistics, Iran exported 1.1mn b/d in December, down from April’s 2.5mn b/d.
Observers say some exports of Iranian oil may be going under the radar, sometimes because smugglers are tapping into oil purchase deals arranged through Iran’s relaunched energy bourse.
With the Brent oil price lately stabilising at around $60 per barrel, Iran has continued to offer large discounts to buyers if they purchase in bulk. However there is fierce competition with other producers chasing bargain-hunting buyers.
Bilateral trade between Iran and Turkey in the first 10-months of this year fell 10% y/y to $8.2bn, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) said.
It’s early days for gauging how much respect Turkey is showing, and will show, towards the US sanctions targeted at trade with Iran, with the outcome in that area dependent on how Ankara’s multifaced rift with Washington evolves. However, Turkey has protested that there is no way it can countenance entirely ending the acceptance of gas or oil exports from Iran. Gas flows from Iran at this time of the year are particularly crucial to the Turks given the winter cold and Turkey is a big energy importer, thus it will take a lot of persuading to give up the convenience of taking crude from its next-door neighbour. In the meantime, Turkey is one of eight countries worldwide awarded a 180-day waiver permitting the purchase of Iranian oil shipments without fear of secondary sanctions kicking in.
In 2017, bilateral trade between the two neighbours from January to October stood at $9.12bn, according to TUIK.
Turkish exports to Iran in the first 10 months of 2018 decreased by 22% y/y. For the assessed 10 months of this year, Iran was ranked as the 20th largest export destination for Turkish products, and the seventh biggest sender of exports to Turkey.
Iran recorded a non-oil trade surplus of around $2bn for the first seven months of the current Persian calendar year (March 21), according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA). The surplus, calculated at the official exchange rate of IRR42,000 to the dollar rather than the free market rate which stands at IRR116,000, might suggest the country is still doing relatively well despite the US move to strangle its economy with renewed heavy sanctions. However, the IMF says the sanctions have sent Iran into recession.
Iran’s non-oil exports over the period stood at $31.4bn, up 13% y/y, IRICA said. The Administration also noted that during the seven months Iran’s imports fell by 12.5% y/y to $29.5bn. Since the sanctions were announced, many Iranian companies have struggled to bring in the goods they require given the reluctance of trade counter-parties abroad to expose themselves to secondary US sanctions.
Iran’s non-oil exports include gas and condensates. Condensates was the largest exported product from the country in the seven-month period at a value of $2.7bn. Liquefied propane exports reached $1.3bn, light oil products
21 IRAN Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com