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schemes, the FTS added. The Central Bank, in turn, will be able to improve the efficiency and quality of its supervisory activities, says the explanatory note of the Ministry of Finance. The tax authorities will no longer have to write requests to banks about transactions on the accounts of their clients, which should reduce labor and material costs, the authors of the bills rejoice.
Digital Ruble. ​Sberbank thinks the central bank’s (CBR) digital ruble plan poses a threat to commercial banks. While the exact model for introducing the digital ruble has yet to be decided, there’s talk of allowing Russians to hold digital ruble accounts directly at the central bank. If the CBR implements this model not by issuing new currency, but by swapping a portion of the existing money supply for digital, Sberbank estimates that commercial banks will experience outflows worth RUB2-4 trillion over three years, as clients transfer their savings to the CBR. These outflows will lead to liquidity crunches, Sberbank projects, which will force banks to increase borrowing rates. How bad would RUB4 trillion in outflows be for banks? According to central bank data from November, Russia’s banks hold RUB32.5 trillion in deposits, RUB10.8 trillion of, which are household savings. So RUB4 trillion is a sizable loss. Why is Sberbank, in particular, concerned about this? Holding 44% of Russia’s retail deposits, Sber has the most to lose from potential competition with the central bank.
Valentina Matvienko, Chairwoman of the Federation Council, has suggested considering extending the subsidised mortgage programme (with the 6.5.% rate) to the secondary market. The subsidised mortgage programme was launched on 17 April and underpinned the upbeat operating conditions across the primary market. In 10mo20, mortgage origination surged 46% YoY to RUB 3.2tn while the programme accounted for some 85% of the total on the primary segment. For listed developers, 3Q20 sales were up a blended 24% on the 17% price increase. As of October 2020, the mortgage rate for secondary market deals was 8%, or 150bp higher than the subsidised programme. The secondary sector lagged slightly, with an 8-10% YoY price advance in 3Q20 in Moscow and St Petersburg vs. the 10% YoY blended on the primary sector in both cities. The secondary market experienced more pressure from the lockdown measures, with demand shifting towards rural purchases. The number of deals for Moscow saw a minor correction (-5% YoY) for both the secondary and primary markets, as of 10m20. Were the programme to be extended, we would anticipate the secondary sector catching up in terms of demand and prices at the expense of a certain cooling on the primary market, subject to the final implementation and details of the new initiative
8.1.8 ​Sberbank news
107 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ January 2021 www.intellinews.com
Analysts at UBS have assessed the value of​ ​Sberbank​’s non-financial assets, ​and it solidifies Sber’s place among Russia’s tech giants, reports BMB