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Russia’s credit ratings have been improving and all three ratings agencies have returned Russia to “investment grade” status (BBB- or more by S&P and Fitch, Baa3 by Moody’s).
Moody’s rates Russia at Baa3 with stable outlook on both its foreign and local currency debt.
Moody’s last upgraded Russia from Ba1 (Positive) in January 2018 as the economy started to emerge from several years of recession. The lowest rating the country had was B3 in August 2008 following the collapse of the ruble that year and technical default on the GKO state treasury bills. The highest the country has scored was Baa1 in March 2013 as economy bounced back from the 2008 crisis.
Fitch rates Ukraine at BBB- on both its foreign and local currency debt with no outlook indicated.
Fitch has been a lot more upbeat on Russia and has consistently ranked if with a treble B rating since 2004 of one sort or another, as it take more account of Russia rock solid fundamentals – the low external debt and large currency reserves. The lowest rating it had was CCC in August 2008 following the currency meltdown. The highest rating was Baa1 in March 2013 thanks to the economic rebound that year.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) rates both Russia’s foreign debt at BBB- with stable outlook and the local debt at BBB.
S&P has also been fairly consistent on Russia’s rating. Its lowest grade was BB+ (negative) awarded in January 2015. The highest was BBB awarded in December 2008.
8.5 Fixed income
In 2021 the fiscal deficit should be financed by borrowings, which could total RUB3.7 trillion gross (RUB2.7 trillion net). On Siluanov's estimates, this translates into RUB75bn of issuances per auction in 2021. Siluanov does not see it as an issue given successful auctions of RUB400bn in 2020.
OFZ floater auctions, which raised RUB3trillion in funding, required a premium of 20-25bps vs. RUONIA, which rose to 50bps by November. This shifts the public debt risk structure from currency to interest rates.
122 RUSSIA Country Report January 2021 www.intellinews.com