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business having a 45% share in the medium term.
· Our model implies a 12% y/y revenue advance in 4Q20. We leave that as our base case, as it factors a close to 10% y/y uplift in December, which also has an elevated comparison base.
· The company announced that it had completed the roll-out of its marketplace in October and a target of 2.5mn SKUs in the medium term across a large assortment mix. New initiatives in smaller formats, the pets segment and the marketplace represent upside risks to our model, that factors a 2020-24F sales CAGR of 10%, but they require more tangible operational progress.
· The shares have gained 11.5% this week, following the announcement of a tender offer from Altus Capital. The stock demands 2021F EV/EBITDA of 7.6x, while we forecast a 12-month dividend yield of 8.5%, which are fair, in our view.
Russian children's goods retailer Detsky Mir will sell up to 29.9% to Altus Capital at RUB160 share, the company announced. In September the retailer held an accelerated book-building sale of 25% of its capital by AFK Sistema multi-industry investment group and the Russia-China Investment Fund (RCIF). The Altai Capital deal price represents a 27% premium to RUB126.5/share at November 27 market close and a 6.7% premium to BCS Global Market's target price of RUB150 per share. the analysts commented on December 1. In addition, should a buyout If the tender offer is launched, investors may gain by participating, BCS GM analysts believe, seeing the news as positive.
9.2.7 TMT corporate news
Mail.ru Grouphas announced the acquisition of a 25% stake in Uchi Group, Russia's leading e-learning platform for primary and secondary school levels. Mail.ru will also have an option to increase its stake to 49.5% by the end of 2021 and to a controlling one in 2022-23. Mail.ru is to pay RUB 3.75bn for 25%, which implies a 2020F EV/Sales multiple of 5x, based on Uchi Group's expected revenues of about RUB 3bn this year. EdTech has been a hot topic, in our view, with the valuation multiples of public companies, and in some recent investment rounds, notably exceeding Uchi Group's valuation within the deal. We remain positive on Mail.ru and believe that EdTech could become an important driver for the company’s investment case in coming years.
OZON holdings announced new commissions and tariffs on its marketplace on December 15, which will take effect starting from February 2021. OZON will reduce commissions for sales made on its marketplace. An
150 RUSSIA Country Report January 2021 www.intellinews.com
