Page 70 - RusRPTJan21

However, the global crisis has reduced trade between the two by more than $10bn per month from the circa $60bn a month Russia was exporting to China in the first quarter and as a result the modest trade surplus Russia was running with China in 2019 of about $4bn per month went negative in May and the deficit increased to a significant $5.5bn in the month of November.
The next largest trade partner, according to the official statistics is the Netherlands with exports to Russia running at about $25bn per month although this has fallen consistently every month since the $47.6bn it exported to Russia in January of this year. This trade is of course largely Russian companies routing trade back home via the Netherlands where many Russian companies are domiciled.
The role of the Netherlands as a convenient tax haven may change in 2021 as the Kremlin, in its hunt for more tax revenues, is seeking to bring more Russian companies onshore and is threatening to end the double tax treaty arrangement that encouraged so many Russian firms to incorporate there (see story in public finance section). Cyprus has already succumbed to an increase in the duties rate demanded by the Kremlin but Cyprus is much more heavily dependent on Russian business than the Netherlands where talks are ongoing so the outcome of this negotiation is uncertain still.
Russia’s second most important partner for imports is Germany, where Russian firms largely buy machinery and the level of imports has been fairly steady at circa $25bn-$27bn all year but dropped slightly to $23bn-$24bn starting in May when the crisis began.
Germany is also an important export market but like the trade with China exports have fallen by about $14bn per month from the $36.6bn Russia exported to Germany in January 2019 to $22bn in November 2020. As a result the trade surplus of $20bn per month at the start of 2019 Russia enjoyed with Germany has fallen heavily to only $2.8bn in the month of November.
Notably Belarus remains an important export market for Russia with $15.8bn of exports in November making it the fifth biggest export destination in that month and for most of the year. Exports to Belarus started the year at circa $20bn per month in January and remains at the same volume until May when they fell to $17bn in May before falling to $16bn in August during the start of the mass protestsfollowingthedisputed​A​ ugust9​presidentialelectionsbeforesliding slightly again to reach $15.5bn in November.
The trade surplus Russia enjoyed with Belarus has also fallen heavily over the last two years and was already falling before the political crisis there started in August. The surplus fell from $23.4bn in January 2019 to $9.2bn in November 2020.
Belarus runs a significant trade deficit with Russia of about $4bn a month in the second half of 2020, down from a circa $10bn deficit Belarus was running at the start of 2020. Russia imported $13.4bn of goods from Belarus in January 2020 and maintained the same volume until May when imports to Russia from Belarus dropped to $11.7bn in May, a level they have stayed at for the rest of the year.
70 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ January 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com