Page 30 - UKRRptNov19

5.2 Balance of payments, current account
Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached $0.89bn in August, shrinking from $1.2bn in July, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report on October 15. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $0.85bn (shrinking from a $0.96bn deficit in July) amid a 2.7% m/m decline in adjusted exports and 4.2% m/m decrease in adjusted imports.
“The August merchandise balance was close to our prediction. We were also right in predicting weaker growth of grain exports and irregularity in machinery and ferrous metal exports,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “The provisional customs statistics released this month promise that September’s goods trade deficit will enlarge to around $1bn, mostly due to the lower value of exports. We expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) to swell to $11.5bn (from $9.9bn in 2018), with import growth outpacing export gains.”
In August, goods exports increased 6.2% y/y to $4.3bn (vs. a 18.3% surge in July). In particular, grain exports jumped 30.6% y/y (vs. a 60.3% y/y surge in July). In addition, mineral product exports increased 33.1% y/y (vs. 34.4% y/y growth in July). At the same time, export of ferrous metals dropped 14.6% y/y (vs. 2.0% y/y growth in July). In addition, machinery exports slid 5.6% y/y (vs. a 16.7% y/y surge in July).
Goods imports amounted to $5.2bn, slowing to 6.1% y/y growth in August (vs. 8.3% y/y growth in July). As in previous months, the growth was mostly driven by machinery, road vehicles and aircraft. In particular, machinery imports advanced 21.8% y/y (vs. 26.5% y/y growth in July) while imports of road vehicles and aircraft increased 26.3% y/y (vs. 57.9% y/y growth in July). Meanwhile, energy product imports continued to fall, dropping 11.6% y/y (vs. a 17.4% y/y decline in July).
In 8M19, the merchandise trade deficit reached $5.8bn, swelling 16.7% y/y. Goods exports advanced 6.9% y/y to $33.0bn. Meanwhile, goods imports rose 8.2% y/y to $38.9bn.
Exports to the EU increased 7.5% y/y in 8M19, while EU imports advanced 8.6% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 42.3% and 41.6%, respectively
30 UKRAINE Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.com