Page 18 - IRANRptJul19

Iran insisting on at least 1.5mn b/d of oil exports to stay in nuclear deal: report
Iran’s export value officially fell 5.8% y/y in 2018
Iran and Turkey open a special channel for exports of Iranian oil
there isn’t yet a single market along the border line and trade between Iran and Turkmenistan has been rather limited in recent years.
Iran exported over 735,000 tonnes of commodities worth over $400mn to Turkmenistan during the 2018/2019 Persian year (ended 20 March), according to figures from the Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) released last month. The customs data show year on year declines of 4.3% and 16.5% in value and weight, respectively. Iran’s imports from Turkmenistan decreased by 28.7% in value and by over 45% in weight during the same period.
Iran is reportedly insisting on exporting at least 1.5mn b/d of oil, triple May’s expected levels under tightened US sanctions, as a condition for staying in the nuclear deal.
The figure was communicated in recent meetings between Iranian and Western officials, including Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, but has not been set down in writing, Reuters on May 13 reported four European diplomatic sources as saying.
In an attempt to reduce Iran’s crude exports to zero, Washington at the beginning of May ended waivers that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports for six months. The sanctions have already more than halved Iranian oil exports to 1mn b/d or less, analysts say, from a peak of 2.8mn b/d last year. Exports could drop to as low as 500,000 b/d from May, some estimates suggest. Iran has said it will resort to the grey market to help keep its oil sales up. Another big factor is whether China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, will keep up its purchases—the decision may hinge on how Beijing’s trade war talks with Washington pan out. Chinese oil buys from Iran could be used as a bargaining chip.
“Zarif said specifically that they want to sell 2 million barrels of oil [per day#, basically the level Iran was exporting before [Donald] Trump withdrew from the [nuclear] deal,” said a source present at the New York meeting in which the minister made the statement, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said last week that for Tehran to stay in the nuclear deal, Iranian oil sales should reach their pre-sanctions level or at least “start the process of returning” to such a level.
Iran’s total export value dropped 5.8% y/y in 2018 to $44.31bn, the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said on April 23.
Iran officially exported $46.98bn worth of goods in 2017.
Major US sanctions were applied to the Iranian economy last year in two waves, the first kicking in in August and the second in November. The second included the sanctions aimed at oil, gas and petrochemical exports.
The latest IRICA data also showed Iran’s gas condensate export value decreased by 30% y/y last year to $4.935bn from $7.063bn.
In all, some $14.15bn worth of petrochemicals were exported in 2018, accounting for 31.98% of Iran's total export value, the statistics showed.
April 22 saw Iran and Turkey open a special financial channel for exports of Iranian gas and oil to Turkey, according to Islamic Republic News Agency. Under the system Iranian goods might be paid for with Turkish lira to help it steer clear of US sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was in Turkey last week for discussions on launching the financial mechanism, said he and his Turkish counterpart would personally oversee it. China, meanwhile, reiterated that it opposed unilateral US sanctions. "China-Iran co-operation is open, transparent and in accordance with law. It should be respected," foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters.
18 IRAN Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com