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Opinion
February 16, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 27
that if it came to the crunch, he would choose the EU over his V4 neighbours. As he said last June, “either we get in the integration express or we’ll be stuck in the depot on the second track”. In October the Slovak president, premier and parliamentary speaker joined forces to endorse this drive.
“What we want is to have a chance to be part of the EU core and keep good relations with the V4,” says a former Slovak ambassador, who adds that the country will continue to try to act as a bridge between the V4 and Brussels. “We don’t see it as something mutually exclusive; in fact we see it the other way round, as something mutually supportive.”
But the problem with bridges is people walk
all over them. As the smallest and youngest V4 member, and the only one now led by the left, be- ing a bridge may become an increasingly difficult role for Slovakia to play, eventually pushing it to prioritise its relations with the EU core.
Hungary and Poland may also find Czechia a less pliable partner in the future, despite the election of billionaire populist Andrej Babis. His predecessor, Social Democrat Bohuslav Sobotka, meekly followed Orban’s lead on migration because he feared that doing otherwise would be a gift to rivals such as Babis and the rightwing opposition parties. The centre-left government seemed to almost court the EU infringement procedure on migrant quotas by refusing to take in any new refugees, when it could easily have made a token gesture as Slovakia did.
If Babis is finally able to form a majority govern- ment, perhaps with Social Democrat backing, he will be in a much stronger position to take a purely pragmatic approach to the issue. A coalition with the far right Freedom and Direct Democracy Party or the Communists, with re-elected President Milos Zeman exerting more influence on foreign policy, would, however, be a very different matter.
Babis constantly voices criticism of Brussels, and has praised the V4, but he would be ready to
change his position at the drop of a hat if he saw electoral advantage in it. He may try to keep trian- gulating between Brussels and the V4, but Fico’s shift West will make it increasingly difficult for him to cover both bases and could leave him exposed.
Babis is visibly enjoying strutting on the European stage and he would not want to exchange that
for skulking on the fringes with the V4. “What would Babis gain if he ranks third after Orban and Kaczynski?” Vit Dostal, head of AMO, said at a seminar of the Czech foreign affairs think-tank in November. “His first steps indicate that we will see a continuity with what we have seen so far.”
Nevertheless he will not be able to play the big role he would like to until the Czech Republic adopts the euro, something that he has ruled out at least for this parliamentary term, largely be- cause of voter opposition.
For Brussels, the widening division inside the V4 opens up the possibility of breaking off the Czech Republic and Slovakia, leaving Poland and Hungary effectively isolated. Macron already tried this gam- bit on his tour of the region last year and was able to make progress on the posted workers issue.
Whether it would be possible – or even desirable – for the EU as a whole to pursue such a
divisive strategy is debatable, given the region’s sentimental attachment to the V4 format and the risk of damaging the still very strong backing of Hungarians and Poles for the EU.
Yetif–anditisabigif–themigrationissuecanbe defused, it should not be too difficult to win over the Czech Republic and Slovakia. That would then force Poland and Hungary to realise that they are on a losing team and should begin to play by the rules.
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has already made efforts to patch things up with the V4, but it might require Babis and Fico to show a bit more independence from their neighbours to really concentrate everyone’s minds and begin to mend the breach.