Page 12 - bne_newspaper_November_02_2018

Central Europe
November 2, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 12
Polish local election results augur fiery voting season next year
Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw
Katowice, in Poland’s coal mining region of Sile- sia, was the only city won by a PiS-endorsed candidate.
Poland's two biggest political rivals both claimed victory in last Sunday’s local election. Yet, back- stage, both must know the outlook for next year’s general vote has only become cloudier.
The main conclusion from the vote, which attract- ed nearly 55% of voters, the highest turnout in
the history of local elections in Poland, is that the ruling party’s apparent total control in Poland is not the case. But neither did the liberal opposition and the crisis-stricken left deliver a strategic blow to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS).
That sets the scene for the fiercest-ever campaign in the run-up to the general vote in the autumn
of 2019, preceded by the European Parliament election in May.
The ruling populists from PiS made undisputable advances last Sunday. PiS will have power in at least six Polish regions and a seventh one if they are able to agree a coalition with independents. That compares very favourably to just one after the previous election in 2014. PiS also gained a staggering 2mn more voters.
But PiS lost badly in cities. Of the biggest cities, a PiS-endorsed candidate only won the mayoral race in Katowice, a 300,000-strong industrial city in Poland’s coal mining region of Silesia.
Elsewhere, it was independents or candidates of the liberal Civic Coalition (KO) that won, often by
Katowice, in Poland’s coal mining region of Silesia, was the only city won by a PiS-endorsed candidate.
a huge margin. KO’s Rafal Trzaskowski made headlines by sweeping past PiS’ Patryk Jaki in Warsaw 56% to 28%, reportedly boosting tension along the government’s internal fault lines.
What next?
Arguably, KO faces a more daunting task if it wants to win next year. The liberals need to figure out how to win outside urban areas, while PiS’ re- taining dominance in small-town and rural Poland should be enough to hold on to power for another four years, at least in theory.
PiS even appears likelier to achieve a better result in 2019. Their gains in regions – while impressive – were limited by the good result of agrarians from PSL, a traditionally strong party in the local vote.
But PSL is much weaker in general elections and anything more than a single-digit result would be a surprise. A large chunk of PSL voters is expected to vote PiS next year, boosting the populists’ tally.
The liberals’ challenge will be to not let PiS
win by mobilising undecided voters for an even higher turnout. They could also run in a coalition with PSL – and maybe the main leftist party
SLD – in order to max out gains from Poland's proportionate election system.
Poland’s currently disarrayed left could also step in by creating a bloc uniting SLD, the Podemos- styled Razem, the Greens, and city activist move- ments, possibly under the auspices of Robert Biedron, a charismatic former mayor of Slupsk and Poland’s first openly gay politician.