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November 2, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 3
scare hedgehogs with their bare derrieres". "This is the only comment I can give about Russian sanctions against Ukraine," Tur- chynov wrote on his official Facebook page.
Meanwhile, Poroshenko's spokesman press Svyatoslav Tsegolko described Russia's sanctions on a number of Ukrainian individuals and
legal entities as recognition of the Ukrainian president's and his team's efforts to oppose Russia's aggression toward Ukraine.
"This is recognition of the president's and his team's work to oppose the Russian aggression," Tsegolko told Interfax news agency on November 1.
Domestic political impact
Timothy Ash, a senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, believes that the sanctions unlikely to have any "meaningful economic impact", as the volumes of trade with Russia have collapsed four- five-fold since 2014. "I also assume that few of the companies of individuals sanctioned have much meaningful business these days with Russia," he wrote in a note to clients on November 1.
More interesting is the Ukrainian domestic political impact, Ash believes. "Moscow has consistently misread Ukrainian domestic politics in recent years, and miscalculated time and again [...], but this will impart a terminal blow
to any politician inclined to a more moderate stance towards Russia in the looming presidential elections," he wrote.
"Therein the [pro-Russian] Opposition Bloc leader, Yuriy Boiko, has in effect been cast off by Moscow by this move, albeit he always seemed very unlikely to get thru to the second round of the presidential contest in March."
Meanwile, Zenon Zawada at Kyv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on November 1 that among the businesses targeted, we see some minor impact on the business of sunflower oil producer and grain trader Kernel, which received $7.8mn in income last year - from a Russian port it partially owns.
"The sanctions will further hurt the business of Interpipe, but not by much after Russia hiked import duties for railcar wheels in January. That is likely to have further cut away at Russia’s 15-20% share of Interpipe’s 2017 revenue," he added.
"With this list, the Kremlin is clearly delineating for the public who are its enemies among the Ukrainian political and business elite," he
added. "Noticeably, it excludes Ukraine’s leading Russian-oriented politicians and oligarchs, including billionaire Vadim Novinsky, Motor Sich Chairman Viacheslav Boguslayev, Opposition Bloc Head Yuriy Boyko, Akhmetov ally MP Oleksandr Vilkul and gas trader Dmytro Firtash."
At the same time, there are a few notable excep- tions to this rule, Zawada added. "The list does not include President Poroshenko and his ally, billionaire Rinat Akhmetov," he wrote. "Instead, it includes the president’s eldest son, Oleksiy. The list also excludes other top officials, such as Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. But it includes leading presidential contender Tymoshenko."
Zawada believes that this is a deliberate Kremlin tactic to give Poroshenko’s leading political opponent, Tymoshenko, an electoral "boost". "She will waste no time in using this list to prove that Poroshenko is the truly Kremlin ally, rather than her," the expert added. "It’s widely suspected that Poroshenko has tacit business agreements with Putin, and that both are profiting from the war."