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DMEA Commentary DMEA
under OPEC’s quota system.
Nevertheless, Quito’s announcement has
been overshadowed by subsequent events. e capital and other Ecuadorean cities have recently been rocked by widespread protests over auster- ity programmes designed to support a $4.2bn loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in general and over the government’s deci- sion to li fuel subsidies in particular.
And now it appears that Ecuador may be backtracking. sources familiar with the matter recently told s&P Global Platts that Ecuador was considering remaining in the cartel. It is not yet clear whether there is any substance to these reports. One source said that the parties were conducting talks on withdrawal “on a very high level”, while another said that Ecuador was not likely to waver in its push to leave.
What’s next for Brazil?
If Ecuador drops out of OPEC, the number of the group’s member states will drop from 14 to 13 – and it may not rise again for some time.
True, another south American state – Brazil – has been irting with the idea of joining OPEC.
In late October, President Jair Bolsonaro said he had received an informal o er of membership from saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin sal- man (MBs). he expressed keen interest in taking this step, saying: “Personally, I would really like to see Brazil become a member.”
But Bolsonaro also stressed that he was not ready to throw the full weight of his o ce behind the saudi o er. Brazilian o cials should rst dis- cuss the invitation with the president’s own eco- nomic advisors and with representatives of the Energy Ministry, he said. Until they accomplish this, they must not make any formal requests to join OPEC, he said.
No such request is likely to be forthcoming at the cartel’s next meeting. Even if the Brazilian president likes the idea of joining OPEC in the- ory, he has indicated he will not act on impulse. he has probably been reviewing responses to his announcement – and noticing that most indus- try analysts agree that seeking membership in the cartel would not suit Brazil’s interests. As a result, OPEC will probably not have much to say about Brazil and the possibility of keeping its number of members at 14 later this week.
Week 48 05•December•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P7
