Page 5 - GLNG Week 40

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG
spending that much. In fact, the consortium has made a vigorous e ort over the last week to quell speculation about the possibility that it might make a nal investment decision (FID) on the full project at the ceremony in Maputo.
Up until very recently, though, it was still signalling that it intended to reach the FID stage by the end of this year, as previously stated. On October 7, LNG World News quoted Mark Hackney, MRV’s midstream managing director, as saying that the initial investment decision was an important milestone along the path to FID later in 2019.
is deadline appears to have been pushed back, however. Clarke said in Maputo on Octo- ber 8 that MRV was looking to make the FID in 2020 and then begin production in 2025.
Political implications
is change of schedule is probably unwelcome news for Mozambique’s government – and for its President Filipe Nyusi, who has been an enthu- siastic supporter of investment in gas projects. Indeed, Nyusi’s administration appears to have encouraged rumours that MRV intended to make the FID on Rovuma LNG on October.
Nevertheless, it is not likely to hurt Nyusi’s prospects for re-election – despite reports that the president had been pushing ExxonMobil and its partners to take this step earlier. Rather, the announcement of the initial investment deal and the EPC contract this week will probably improve the president’s standing ahead of the vote, which is due to take place on October 15. It may not do the same for the ruling Frelimo party, which many observers expect to lose at least a
few seats in parliament, but it should give Nyusi a boost.
If nothing else, it will remind voters that the president has played an instrumental role in pro- moting investment in Mozambique’s gas sector. For Nyusi has not just backed the Rovuma LNG project; he also encouraged the US company Anadarko to commit to the Mozambique LNG scheme and courted Italy’s Eni as it mulled the Coral South LNG initiative.
Potential for transformation
Together, these three projects have the potential to transform Mozambique.
Certainly, they will change the amount of money owing into and out of the country. e African state’s GDP currently stands at about $12.33bn per year, which is less than a quarter of what the Rovuma LNG, Mozambique LNG and Coral South LNG consortia are proposing to spend. As noted above, Rovuma LNG will probably carry a price tag of around $30bn, while Mozambique LNG will cost $20bn and Coral South will cost $10bn.
e projects will also establish Mozambique as a major player in the world gas market. e Rovuma LNG, Coral South LNG and Mozam- bique LNG plants will eventually be able to turn out 31.38mn tn/yr of LNG, equivalent to about 10% of current global production capacity.
Reaching this level will take a few years, how- ever. As noted above, Rovuma LNG does not expect to begin production until 2025. Mozam- bique LNG, meanwhile, is due to bring its rst train on stream in 2024, and Coral South LNG will launch production in 2022.™
Clarke said
in Maputo on October 8 that MRV was looking to make the FID in 2020 and then begin production in 2025.
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