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Kazakh Outlook 2018
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Kazakhstan’s political stability hinges on President Nursultan Nazarbayev staying in power, and with every year that passes speculation about the successor to the country’s veteran leader – Nazarbayev turned
78 in 2017 – grows more intense.
More clarity came in 2017, as constitutional reforms passed in March suggest that Nazarbayev
is preparing a system that would ensure a smooth transition of power following his inevitable exit.
It is suspected that Nazarbayev's daughter Dariga, a senate member,
is being prepared to take her father’s place, though other hypothetical candidates include Samat Abish, deputy head of the state security service, and Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, speaker of the upper chamber of parliament, who constitutionally would automatically assume the presidency
in the event of Nazarbayev's death.
Contingency plans to preserve stability are important, since protests in 2016, officially directed against Nazarbayev’s intention to lease lands to China,
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demonstrated that Kazakhstan has
the potential for an “Arab spring” scenario. Since the protests held across Kazakhstan were mainly a reaction to deteriorating economic circumstances – driven by low world oil prices – and continuous devaluations of the Kazakh tenge, the government’s commitment to diversification and a recovery in oil output is likely to determine political stability in the coming years.
Kazakhstan GDP y/y
On the economic front the country has recovered from the collapse of oil prices well. The Kazakh government expects growth in 2017 at 3.4%,
up from the 1% recorded in 2016, Economy Minister Timur Suleimenov said in August. GDP growth stood
at 4.3% in January-September.
This is more or less in line with forecasts from international financial