Page 63 - bne_newspaper_February_02_2018

bne February 2018
Opinion 63
detractors Zeman is a boorish authoritarian illiberal nation- alist and a national embarrassment, tarnishing the Czech Republic’s good name.
As well as lapses of decorum such as appearing drunk at cer- emonial occasions and using the c-word in a radio broadcast, Zeman has shared a platform with fringe anti-Islamic extrem- ists and come out as the only EU head of state to publicly endorse Donald Trump before the US elections in 2016.
More worrying still has been his cavalier attitude to the Czech constitution. His appointment in 2013 of a presidential caretaker government of supposed technocrats over the heads of political parties flouted previous constitutional practice. He has at various times suggested that, creatively interpreted, the constitution could him allow him to dismiss the government; leave ministers in office following a prime minister’s resignation; or leave his ally prime minister Andrej Babiš in office, rather than dissolve parliament if all three constitutionally allowed attempts at forming a government were exhausted.
Polls suggest, however, that Zeman, who has been picking up support since the launch of the December billboard, has a solid base of support predominantly among poorer, older, more left- wing, less well-educated Czechs. He is likely to top the first-round poll by a clear margin with 43-44% of the vote, but may face a stiffer contest in the second, run-off round on 26-27 January.
The challengers
As in the first direct presidential elections in 2013, Zeman faces eight challengers. However, this year political parties have taken a back seat. Many have realised that they simply lack a broad enough appeal or any credible enough candidates to have a serious run at the presidency.
The one party that could have done so, Babiš’s ANO movement – said at one time to have considered running the popular defence minister (now foreign minister) Martin Stropnický for
“The relatively low profile of the election is partly down to the incumbent”
the presidency – chose not to do so: for Babiš keeping to his informal pact with Zeman and getting into government were by the important priorities. If, as expected, his new minority administration loses its upcoming parliamentary vote of confi- dence, Zeman will play a key role by re-nominating Babiš as prime minister for a second, and probably decisive, effort
a forming a government.
All but two of Zeman’s challengers are non-party indepen- dents running on vague centrist or centre-right platforms.
Former prime minister Mirek Topolánek, who headed a Civic Democrat-led (ODS) governments of 2006-9, running as independent, also seems to be attracting some backing from parts of his former party, helped by outspoken attacks on Zeman questioning the president’s health.
Polls suggest, however, that Zeman has only two serious chal- lengers: Jiri Drahoš, the former head of the Czech Academy of Sciences, and the journalist, lyricist and music producer turned betting tycoon and philanthropist, Michal Horácek.
“Polls still suggest that Zeman will lose by a clear margin in a run-off against Drahoš”
Although Horácek has waged a slicker campaign, most polls show him in third place with Drahoš the clear favourite to make it into the run-off against Zeman on 26-27 January.
President Drahoš?
Although keeping a (for him) low profile, Zeman has had a good campaign. He has been picking up support following the launch of December’s billboard campaign, with bookmakers’ odds making him the clear favourite and little sign of his rivals generating much momentum or public excitement.
However, polls still suggest that Zeman will lose by a clear margin in a run-off against Drahoš, who is forecast to gain most of the first round votes cast for other candidates – emulating a strategy seen in presidential elections in Slovakia and Romania in 2014, when previously little-known indepen- dents overhauled seemingly dominant left-wing populists in the second round.
Throughout Drahoš has cultivated a centrist and non-confron- tational image, telling interviewers that he had a vision, but
no political programme. He also made clear that he would be more than willing to work with Babiš, who he saw as a main- stream politician with a clear electoral mandate whose govern- ment deserved the backing of other mainstream parties.
Zeman will, therefore, be hoping that his non-campaign has been well pitched enough to rally his core support among poorer, older, less well-educated Czechs, while leaving diverse groups of voters opposed to him unmobilised. His most likely path to victory would be to get enough votes behind him to narrowly win the election outright in the first round. The fact that his key chal- lengers are dignified public personas with good CVs, rather than any compelling positive vision of a liberal and outward looking Czechia may turn out to be Zeman’s greatest asset.
Seán Hanley is Senior Lecturer in Comparative Central and East European Politics at University College London. This post first appeared on his personal academic blog.
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