Page 14 - IRANRptJul20

measures proving effective in forestalling widespread company bankruptcies, limiting job losses and easing financial strains. The WEO modelled three alternative scenarios: a 2020 lockdown lasting 50% longer than it is forecasting; a mild recurrence of the virus in 2021; and a protracted pandemic and longer containment effort in 2020, as well as a recurrence in 2021. In the worst case, the global economy would shrink by around 11% rather than 3% this year, it said.
Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said the global economy was suffering a crisis “like no other”.
She added: “It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago. ‘The Great Lockdown’, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically.”
4.0​ Real Economy
Iran - Main Macro Indicators
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual GDP (y/y)
-6.6 -1.9 4.3 4.4 13.4 3.8 -4.9
GDP (per capita) (USD)
7,719.77 7,931.07 6,007.46 5,579.25 4,899.68 5,230.19 5,494.06
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Private (IRR bn)
3,208,428 4,505,167 5,262,427
5,656,000
6,236,000
7,032,000
3,899,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Government (IRR bn)
713,990 868,334
1,160,266
1,301,000
1,700,000
1,952,000
1,134,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation, (IRR bn)
1,809,515 2,386,025 3,048,276
2,606,000
2,552,000
2,885,000
1,578,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Exports, (lRR bn)
473,222 376,386 376,240 421,236 / /
GDP: Imports, (IRR bn)
449,701 345,821 281,210 265,210 / /
Source: CEIC; Central Bank of Iran
4.1​ Industrial production
Strong performance of Iran’s manufacturing sector prompts White House to target blue-collar industries with executive order
Iran’s strengthening manufacturing sector has become pivotal in the country’s resilience to US sanctions, so much so that the White House has issued a new executive order targeting the “construction, mining, manufacturing, or textiles sectors of the Iranian economy”.
“The [Trump] administration is in effect targeting the private sector and the millions of blue-collar workers in the country’s factories, contrary to its stated intention of using sanctions to restrict the financial resources of government authorities,” Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of Bourse & Bazaar—a media company that supports business diplomacy between Europe and Iran through publishing, events and research—​wrote​ ​in a June 14 piece for Bloomberg Opinion.
Iran officially earned just $8.9bn from the sale of oil and related products in 2019-20, down from a peak of $119bn less than a decade ago.
14​ IRAN Country Report July 2020 www.intellinews.com