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actually making strides in the other direction. Perhaps these trolls need calling in for a course of education rooted in reality.
More examples could be extended here but revisiting George Orwell would be more helpful. Chasing up every single manipulation in the media is a thankless task given the raging gale at the moment.
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Turkey managed GDP growth of 4.5% y/y in the first quarter, but thanks to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, the party is over before it’s begun—the latest activity figures are “ominous and point to a collapse in activity in Q2”, according to Capital Economics.
Turkey’s growth rate lagged economists’ forecasts. Surveys by Bloomberg, Reuters and state-run news service Anadolu Agency predicted a GDP expansion of between 4.9% and 5.4%. The economy grew by 6% in the final quarter of 2019.
Turkey’s first full-year downturn in over a decade is a risk, according to most forecasts, but Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak reiterated the official view that positive economic growth is still expected in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a 5% contraction in Turkish GDP this year, while Fitch Ratings expects 3%.
Erdogan opted not to bring in a full COVID-19 lockdown, referring to the need to keep Turkey’s economic “wheels” turning, but economic activity still appears to have sunk.
“Indeed, the manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers’ index] is consistent, on past form, with a 40% y/y drop in industrial production and capacity utilisation has plunged. The tourism sector has, unsurprisingly, been among the hardest hit parts of the economy, with foreign tourist arrivals down by more than 99% y/y in April. And even though virus containment measures have started to be eased in recent weeks, activity remains well below normal levels. Overall, we have pencilled in a contraction in GDP of around 15% q/q in Q2,” Tuvey concluded.
Turkey is heading for a 2020 GDP contraction of 3.8% “reflecting a continued fall in investment as confidence plummets to record lows, shrinking exports amid weak external demand, and the disruption to activity due to restrictive
21 TURKEY Country Report July 2020 www.intellinews.com
