Page 21 - UKRRptMar20

Regionally, the highest retail growth in January occurred in Zaporizhzhia (17.7% y/y), Ternopil (17.4% y/y), and Kirovohrad (16.0% y/y) regions. It was the slowest in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (5.8% y/y) and Donetsk (10.3% y/y) as well as in the Chernihiv (8.4% y/y) regions.
Significantly cooling inflation helps to maintain the high growth rate of real retail sales. As a remarkable development, January’s growth in retail sales across different regions was much more even, as compared to the previous year when amid the overall strong retail growth there were regions with negative results.
Concorde Capital expects real retail to increase 8-9% y/y in 2020 (vs. 10.5% y/y in 2019).
5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisors
21​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com