Page 32 - UKRRptMar20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Budget and debt indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
State budget revenues, UAH bln
231.7
209.7
240.6
314.6
346
339.2
357.1
534.6
616.3
793.4
928.1
1053
% of GDP
24.4%
23.0%
22.3%
24.2%
24.6%
23.2%
22.5%
26.9%
25.9%
26.6%
26.1%
26.2%
State budget expenditures, UAH bln
244.2
245.2
304.9
338.1
399.4
403.9
435.1
579.8
686.4
841.3
987.4
1121
% of GDP
25.8%
26.8%
28.3%
26.0%
28.4%
27.6%
27.4%
29.2%
28.8%
28.2%
27.7%
27.9%
State budget balance, UAH bln
-12.5
-35.5
-64.3
-23.6
-53.4
-64.7
-78
-45.2
-70.1
-47.9
-59.3
-68.4
% of GDP
-1.3%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-4.9%
-2.3%
-2.9%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.7%
Public debt, UAH bln
189
318
432
473
516
584
1,101
1,572
1,930
2142
2169
2410
% GDP
20.0%
34.8%
40.1%
36.4%
36.7%
39.9%
69.4%
79.0%
81.0%
71.8%
60.9%
59.9%
Source: SP Advisors
Ukraine's state budget dropped 7.0% y/y to UAH50.7bn in January, ​which is 21.5% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally reported on Feb. 3. Net tax revenue rose 12.4% y/y to UAH22.4bn (20.7% below plan) amid 1.9% y/y growth of gross tax revenue and a 8.7% y/y fall in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue plummeted 19.5% y/y to UAH18.1bn (30.4% below plan).
Local budgets' fiscal revenue improved 13.3% y/y to UAH21.5bn in January, which is 7.4% below plan. Social payments (pension and other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 14.9% y/y to UAH22.0bn.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko Concorde Capital said in a note. : “As we expected, the problems with budget collections extended into the new year, and we are not likely to see any significant improvement in the nearest months. The decline in industrial output is hampering growth in tax revenue, while the current efforts in fighting contraband and corruption in customs are likely to take quite a long time before the positive results of reforms are to be seen.”
Ukraine’s general budget revenue dropped 1.6% y/y to UAH72.7bn in January​ after swelling 14.9% y/y in December, the State Treasury reported on February 27. General budget expenditures rose 3.0% y/y to UAH75.9bn after increasing 1.4% y/y in the prior month. The general budget deficit reached UAH3.1bn (vs. a deficit of UAH77.4bn in December).
Tax revenue declined 2.6% y/y, after a 16.7% y/y surge in December. In particular, enterprise profit tax collections dropped 4.1% y/y (vs. a 217.7% y/y surge in December). In addition, resource royalty payments plummeted 70.7% y/y (vs. an 11.2% y/y drop in December). The excise tax on domestically produced goods slid 7.3% y/y (vs. a 1.5% y/y increase in December).
32​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com