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Opinion
January 26, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
crises. For example, financial collapse was staved off in 2011, and again in 2015, through massive devaluations of the rouble with the effect of sub- stantially reducing the savings and living stand- ards of the populace.
Other, more draconian, measures have also been implemented. In an effort to retain personnel in export-oriented industries, employees in certain professions were prohibited from quitting their jobs without permission in 2013. Most recently, in 2017 Lukashenko attempted to introduce a levy on citizens working less than 183 days per year, the so-called ‘social parasitism tax’.
Unsurprisingly, these measures have been unsuc- cessful in revitalising the economy, and have only resulted in increased public opposition to the po- litical regime. The ‘social parasitism tax’ appears to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, unleashing an unprecedented nationwide wave of protests in early 2017. As a result Belarus fell from a score of 7.67/10.00 in the Q1-2017 it- eration of Verisk Maplecroft’s Civil Unrest Index to just 4.40/10.00 in Q4, placing Belarus in the high risk category.
As a result, after spending 2016 ostentatiously demonstrating his independence from Moscow,
Lukashenko was compelled to supplicate himself to Putin in April 2017 in order to access the eco- nomic assistance needed to stave off collapse.
Moscow is likely to make increased equity stakes in Belarus’ oil and gas infrastructure the price of future support. Gomeltransneft – the operator of the Belarusian section of the Druzhba oil pipeline – will be a particularly tempting target. However, Lukashenko is aware that selling these assets will result in sacrificing a large degree of Bela- rus’ sovereignty and subordinating the country to Moscow.
As a result, the next economic crisis in Belarus is likely to involve a major political dispute between Minsk and Moscow, as Lukashenko struggles
to preserve his freedom of action in the face of Russian economic consolidation. In 2007, when Russia first began reducing the subsidy, Belarus retaliated by temporarily cutting off Russian ac- cess to the Druzhba pipeline. Lukashenko is likely to replicate these tactics in future disputes, which increases the risk of more frequent disruptions of Russian oil exports to Europe as Belarus fights to retain its autonomy.
Daragh McDowell is principal analyst – Russia at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
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