Page 74 - bne_July 2021_20210602

74 I New Europe in Numbers bne July 2021
Ukraine inflation vs monetary policy rates %
Source: NBU
Georgia: Net and Gross Money Transfers from abroad (USD thous)
Romania: Industrial Production Index (2015=100, y/y)
Ukraine’s NBU unexpectedly keeps rates on hold, defying market expectations of a 100bp hike as inflation soars
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) defied market expectations for a 100bp rate hike by keeping its prime lending rate on hold at 7.5% during its monetary policy meeting on June 17, despite inflation topping 9.5% in May.
“The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 7.5% per annum. At the same time, the regulator is gradually phasing out the use of its anti-crisis monetary tools, which will enhance the effect of previous key policy rate hikes and contribute to lower inflation,” the bank said in a statement.
Net money transfers to Georgia up 31% during crisis
Aggregated net transfers of money to Georgia in the 12-month period ending May increased to $1.89bn. That's 31%, or over $450mn more, compared to the previous 12-month period.
The comparison is skewed by the lockdown period in April last year when the volume of transfers plunged amid mobility constraints. Comparing the transfers in Q1 this year with the same period a year ago avoids that issue - and the robust 33% y/y advance confirms a genuine upward trend in the volume of money transfers.
Romania’s industry returns to pre-crisis maximum, but some sectors may never recover
Romania’s industrial production index soared by 68% on an annual basis in April, an expected correction after one-third of the industrial sector stopped operating in April 2020 during the initial lockdown.
The correction brought the overall industrial output this April 3.1% above that of April 2019, the equivalent of a tiny 1.5% annual advance. But Romania’s industry entered the coronavirus crisis in decreasing mode: the sector shrank by 4.4% y/y in the last quarter of 2019 after negative growth rates during the whole second half of the year. The 24-month recovery seen this April is therefore significant.
Kazakh GDP contracts 1.5% y/y in Q1 updated figures show
Kazakhstan's GDP contracted by 1.5% y/y in the first quarter, according to latest official figures provided by the national statistics office.
The figure is very slightly different from the preliminary results published earlier, which showed that GDP contracted by 1.6%. The first quarter’s GDP contraction was shallower than the 4.5% drop posted in January and the 2.9% decline seen in January-February. Kazakhstan’s GDP shrank
by 2.6% y/y in 2020. The contraction was driven by a 5.6% y/y drop in the services sector, which was hit by lockdowns brought in to stem the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) imposed in March-May and July-August. The economy was also likely hit by global impacts of the pandemic, including falling demand for energy and reduced world oil prices.
Kazakhstan GDP growth % y/y
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