Page 5 - DMEA Week 06

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA
a global supply glut, amid comparatively weak demand, has pushed spot prices for the super- chilled fuel to new lows.
In addition to this, LNG is widely considered to be one of the best options as far as emissions go. The fuel contains virtually no sulphur, and using it has been found to result in lower emis- sions of other gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), compared to other types of fuel. How- ever, a new draft study has questioned some of these findings, suggesting that using LNG as a marine fuel may actually result in higher GHG emissions over the long term.
The study was carried out by the not-for- profit International Council on Clean Trans- portation (ICCT), and notably commissioned by an environmental organisation, Stand.earth, which is known for its opposition to oil and gas projects.
In the study, the ICCT found that although LNG contains less carbon than conventional marine fuels, its use might not reduce GHG emissions on a lifecycle basis. In particular, it expressed concern about methane leakage, not- ing that methane traps 86 times more heat than the same amount of CO2 over a 20-year period.
The study found that the maximum lifecy- cle GHG benefit of using LNG as a marine fuel over a 100-year time frame was a 15% reduction compared to MGO. It added, though, that this would only be the case “if ships use a high-pres- sure injection-dual fuel (HPDF) engine and upstream methane emissions are well con- trolled”. And it pointed out that only 90 of the more than 750 LNG-fuelled ships in service or on order currently use HPDF engines. Mean- while, the most popular LNG engine technology is a low-pressure, dual-fuel, four-stroke, medi- um-speed engine. According to the study, such engines are used on at least 300 vessels and are a particularly popular option for LNG-fuelled cruise ships. “Results show this technology emit- ted 70% more life-cycle GHGs when it used LNG instead of MGO and 82% more than using MGO in a comparable medium-speed diesel (MSD) engine,” the study said.
Defending LNG
The draft study was only released in late January, and the industry is still analysing the findings.
However, in their initial statement on the study’s findings, industry groups SEA\LNG and the Society for Gas as a Marine Fuel (SGMF) ques- tioned the assumptions and methodology used.
The groups noted that they were not con- tacted prior to the study’s publication and voiced concerns over the lack of direct input from engine manufacturers in the research. They contrasted this with a study released last year by sustainability consultancy thinkstep, which they said was “based on the latest primary data avail- able from the main marine engine manufactur- ers, namely; Caterpillar MaK, Caterpillar Solar Turbines, GE Aviation, MAN Energy Solutions, MTU Friedrichshafen, Winterthur Gas & Diesel (WinGD) and Wärtsilä”.
The groups argue that the thinkstep study has been “widely recognised as the most compre- hensive analysis undertaken to date on the life- cycle GHG emissions of LNG as a marine fuel”, adding that they stand by its findings. Accord- ing to that study, gas-fuelled engines result in emissions reductions of 14-21% for two-stroke slow speed engines, and 7-15% for four-stroke medium speed engines compared with engines powered by heavy fuel oil (HFO).
Engine manufacturers and shipyards say they are working on reducing methane leak- age, so it would not be surprising if new ships have lower rates of it. And while debate will continue about which fuels and methods are the ones the industry should be adopting, ves- sels will be under pressure to ensure compli- ance with IMO 2020, and economics will be the main driver.
LNG-fuelled vessels cost around 15% more to build than ships using HFO, but filling them up is estimated to be about 20% cheaper. Indeed, as more LNG continues to enter global markets, the cost of filling such ships may go down further still. LNG bunkering infrastructure will need to be built out considerably, however, as the indus- try races to adapt to the post-IMO 2020 operat- ing environment.
If new evidence backs up the findings of the ICCT study, and if new regulations on LNG as a marine fuel are ultimately brought in, then the shipping industry will have to rethink things. In the meantime, however, LNG seems set to have a major role to play. ™
Week 06 13•February•2020 w w w. N E W S B A S E . c o m P5