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bne October 2019 Eastern Europe I 49
meeting to restart the stalled Minsk II process to bring an end to the conflict between the two countries.
Le Drian's comments sparked a torrent of scorn on social media, with commentators accusing France of appeasement. Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region remains under the de facto military control of Russia’s armed forces and Russia has expressed no intention to even negotiate over the possible return of the Crimea peninsula.
Speaking at a press conference alongside his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Le Drian said: “It is not yet the time to lift sanctions. [However] we are seeing
a new state of mind compared to that of the last few years, which we are pleased about.”
Some member EU states, such as Poland, have voiced concerns that Paris is taking too lenient a line with Putin’s regime and are likely to resist any efforts to
lift sanctions.
The views of the Zelenskiy administration are less clear. The Ukrainian president said during his election campaign that he wants to bring an end to the undeclared war in the east as soon as possible and hinted strongly that he is prepared to make con- cessions to Russia “even if this costs me this job.” But he has given no details of what sort of deal he would be prepared to cut to bring the fighting to an end.
The Russian side is clearly open to
a deal and wants to end the sanctions regime which is not only hampering its economic recovery but also caused a “war mentality” amongst its leaders that emphasises stability over growth at a time when the Russian economy is stagnating.
Lavrov welcomed Le Drian's comments and highlighted French efforts to preserve the Iranian nuclear deal. France and Russia have common cause in other international disputes and all of Europe is moving away from the US under US president Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, which only makes working to improve relations with Russia on its own more important.
Russia, Belarus reportedly ink ’economic confederacy’ roadmap
bne IntelliNews
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to form "an economic confederacy" by 2022, the Kommersant business daily reported on September 16.
Specifically, Minsk and Moscow also seek to unify their customs and energy poli- cies by 2021. The union state tax code is expected to be adopted by April 1, 2021. Russia-Belarus economic confederacy entails the creation of a single tax code, civil code and list of foreign trade rules, in addition to unified oil, gas and electricity market regulators by 2022.
The roadmap does not address integra- tion between the two countries’ state security, defence, law enforcement and judicial domains.
The document does not mention the possi- bility of a single currency but envisages the prospect of the unification of the countries’ payment systems and the introduction of a single system of investment protection.
Belarus traditionally relies on Moscow's multi-bn energy subsidies and credit resources. In February 2017, the Kremlin said that providing oil subsidies to Belarus cost Russia's budget $22.3bn in 2011- 2015. "From 2011 until 2015, between 18mn and 23mn tonnes of oil was supplied to our Belarusian partners duty free. As a result, during that period, the Russian budget was down by $22.3bn. All of this is nothing if not direct and indirect support for Belarus," the Kremlin added.
The same month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia provides impressive "hidden and direct" support for the Belarusian economy, and this money is not wasted for Moscow.
In turn, Lukashenko claimed in early Febru- ary that membership of a common market with Russia as a part of a single customs
ussia and its neighbouring post- Soviet republic Belarus have
inked a roadmap with the aim
area has cost his country $15bn as
a result of unequal prices and conditions.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
told reporters the same day that the plan of action cited by Kommersant is "preliminary". He added the integra- tion roadmap is expected to be released to the public before the start of 2020, according to the Moscow Times.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson with Belaru- sian President Alexander Lukashenko, Natalia Eismont, told Belarusian news- paper Nasha Niva on September 16 that the roadmap does not threaten Minsk's sovereignty and independence.
"The sovereignty and independence of each of the countries are the red lines," she said. "In the process of integration [with Russia] we are taking steps that are economically expedient. No joint [gov- erning] bodies are being established, the countries are not ready for that."
Eismont added that Union State bodies worked efficiently and there was need to create any new bilateral agencies. "These are the bodies through, which, according to agreements reached by the presidents, issues of bilateral relations are and will be resolved," she said.
At the same time, Belarusian opposition leaders have expressed concern about the roadmap, some of them pledged to bring up the matter while campaigning ahead of this November’s election for the lower house of the nation's parlia- ment, the House of Representatives.
Specifically, former political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich told news agency BelaPAN that "this economic absorption by Russia will entail political absorp- tion". "This is the sale of Belarus in exchange for the supply of hydrocarbons that will allow [Lukashenko] to stay
in power longer," he said.
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