Page 7 - BNE_magazine_10_2019 kolomoisky

bne October 2019 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
Russia’s National Welfare Fund (NWF) 7% of GDP target has been achieved, but the future of the fund is still under question. After the fund has 7% of GDP of assets the government is allowed to spend the money as it likes.
Central Europe
The quality of life in Czechia has overtaken that in the US, according to a new survey from Deloitte. The Czech Republic ranked in 24th place from a total of 149 countries surveyed in terms of quality of life, up 2 places y/y and put- ting it slightly ahead of the US, accord- ing to the survey.
Czech salaries set a new all time record high by passing the CZK34,000 (€1,316) mark for the first time ever
in the second quarter of this year.
The average nominal salary per full- time equivalent (FTE) employee in
the Czech economy was up by 7.2% year-on-year in 2Q19 and by 1.7% quarter-on-quarter to CZK34,105 (€1,320), according to official statistics.
Hungary’s Industrial output was up by 12% y/y in July, rising at the fast- est pace in 28 months, bouncing back from a 1.4% drop in the previous month, according to detailed data from the KSH on September 12.
Hungary's June trade surplus was revised down to €488mn from €556mn in a second reading by the statistics office KSH on September 3. Revised figures show imports fell 2.3%
y/y to €8.38, while exports were down 7.3% at €8.87bn. The trade surplus narrowed by €500mn from the same month a year earlier.
Output in Poland’s industrial sector fell 1.3% y/y in unadjusted terms in August, after growing a healthy 5.8% y/y the preceding month. The August fall is a surprise not predicted by ana- lysts. Car manufacturing and output in the refining industry drove the contrac- tion, according to ING.
Polish retail sales grew 4.4% y/y in constant prices in August. While below market expectations, the expansion
in August is in line with Poles’ robust consumer spending that is driven by the good situation on the labour market, low unemployment and growing wages in particular.
Estonia's producer price index (PPI) fell 1.3% y/y in August for the first time in three years. The headline figure sees the PPI inflation rate below zero
for the first time after an uninterrupted growth period lasting the 34 previous months. On a monthly basis, the index retreated 0.2%, the same rate as in the preceding month.
Lithuanian producer prices retreated 3.5% year on year in August. The indicator’s fall deepened after PPI fell 1.6% y/y in July after going into nega- tive territory for the first time since 2016 in June, ending a nearly three-year-
long streak of PPI inflation. Meanwhile, headline inflation eased to 2.6% y/y in August, with price growth slowing down 0.1pp versus July.
Southeast Europe
Slovenia generated a foreign trade surplus of €945.6mn in the first seven months of 2019, down from a surplus of €477.6mn in the same period last year. Slovenia recorded an external trade surplus in six out of the first seven months of 2019 except in April.
The deficit in April was only the fifth recorded in the last 10 years, and was also the highest of all recorded April deficits.
The average net wage in Romania rose by 15.2% y/y in July to RON3,119 (€660), maintaining an annual growth rate close to 15% for the fourth
month in a row. In real terms, sala- ries increased at slightly lower rates though still in double digits: by 12.4% y/yinQ1andby10.6%y/yinQ2.In July, the real annual growth in net wages was 10.6%.
Romania’s exports contracted by
1% y/y in July, while imports rose
by 5.9% y/y resulting in a trade gap that was 38% wider compared to the same month last year. The outstanding increase is not the effect of a low base: the gap widened by nearly €0.5bn over the past 12 months to over €1.7bn (0.84% of GDP) in only one month, July 2019.
Bulgaria’s current account surplus doubles y/y through July. Bulgaria reported a current account surplus of €2.98bn in the first seven months of 2019, up by 114% y/y, preliminary central bank data showed on September 20.
Bulgaria reported a foreign trade deficit (FOB/FOB) of BGN2.97bn (€1.52bn) in January-July, down 28.3% y/y, as imports rose at a slower pace than exports. Bulgaria posted a trade deficit of BGN1.22bn with EU member states (down 30.9% y/y) and a deficit of BGN1.76bn with non-EU (third) countries (down 26.35% y/y).
Croatia recorded the sharpest month- on-month decline in retail trade turn- over across the EU in July compared
to the previous month, a new report from Eurostat said. Croatia’s retail trade volume declined by 3.3% m/m in July, compared to an average m/m decrease of 0.5% across the 28 EU member states.
www.bne.eu